According to the company's announcement for the third quarter, revenue from January to September 2016 reached 1.567 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, with a net profit of 98 million yuan (a loss of 129 million yuan in the previous period), basic EPS0.133 yuan and weighted ROE4.94%.
Main points of investment:
Performance release to reverse losses. In the first three quarters of 16, the revenue was 1.567 billion yuan-28.35%, and the net profit returned to the mother was 98 million yuan (same period last year:-129 million yuan). Compared with the semi-annual report data, only 200 million yuan in revenue and 59 million yuan in net profit in the third quarter are mainly due to non-recurrent profits and losses (including collection of fees for the use of agreed loan funds of the disposed company and 13 million yuan of interest on entrusted loans). The annual performance still depends on the settlement of major real estate projects. By the end of September, the advance collection of 9.02 billion yuan was 64% higher than that at the beginning of the year, locking in more than one year's performance. According to the plan at the beginning of the year, the planned new construction area for the whole year is 2554 million square meters, with 3746 million square meters completed. By the end of September, the new construction area is extremely 880 thousand square meters, and 1759 thousand square meters have been completed, of which only 1510 million square meters have been completed in the third quarter. The acceleration of completion is the guarantee for settlement. From January to September, the contracted sales were 5.667 billion yuan and 1.293 million square meters, down-23.92% and-38.81% respectively from the same period last year, of which 2 billion yuan was newly signed in the third quarter. We previously estimated that the sales value of the six projects will be about 9 billion yuan in the second half of the year, and the annual sales are expected to be 91-10.9 billion yuan (9.8 billion yuan for the 15-year period) according to the 80% removal rate of 60%.
Plan to participate in the competition for three pieces of land resources in Beijing, Tanzhe Temple project relying on the group's previous participation in the first-level development advantage is expected to gain, Yongfeng industrial base project is expected to be under great competitive pressure. Since the beginning of this year, there have been no new projects. On October 24, the company's board of directors approved a proposal to abstain from bidding for three plots in Beijing: 1) D3 and D4 of Tanzhesi Town reserved industrial land with a planned construction area of 271 000 square meters; 2) "overall development of the northern part of Haidian" Yongfeng industrial base (new) HD00-0401-0062, 0166, 0158 second-class residential land, land area of 835 million square meters, construction area of 1388 million square meters, the base price is 3.84 billion yuan 3) "overall Development in the North of Haidian" Yongfeng Industrial Base (new) HD00-0401-0132, 0120, 0162 second-class residential and retail commercial land, with a land area of 85600 square meters and a construction area of 163, 000 square meters, with a base price of 4.4 billion yuan. The latter two plots of land adopt "limited house price and limited land price" in pilot projects.
The starting price is 28,000 yuan per square meter and 27,000 yuan per square meter respectively. When the price exceeds the upper limit, it will be converted to bidding for the area of commercial housing owned by enterprises (all of which are not for sale as leases). The results will be announced on November 16.
The financial situation continues to improve. At the end of September, the asset-liability ratio of 91% fell 2pc from a year earlier, excluding 62% of the prepaid debt ratio and 459% of the net debt ratio, down 229 percentage points from the same period last year. The monetary fund is 3.48 billion yuan, more than 330 million yuan in short-term debt, and the assets are mainly inventory of property projects in Beijing area, with strong liquidity. The three-year interest rate of 1 billion yuan of two-issue corporate bonds is 5.24%, and the three-year interest rate of 1 billion yuan is 4.98%. The weighted average annualized financing cost interest rate of 8.63% in the first half of the year is slightly lower than the 9.35% of 15 years. The reduction of financing costs, the reduction of expense loans, and the increase in income from the recovery of funds occupation fees made the financial expenses-2 million yuan; the expenditure rate during the period decreased by 9.3% 2pc.
The fundamentals of the company have gradually improved, and as the only capital operation platform for A shares of the major shareholder Beijing Investment Group, its importance and development space are worth looking forward to in the stage of great development of rail transit. With Beijing as the center and rail transit as the basis, the positioning of the development strategy is clear, the existing projects can maintain high performance release, and there is much room for rail property expansion in the future. In the later stage, with the strategic development pattern of "one body and two wings", the group is expected to continue to increase its support to listed companies.
The company's investment value and long-term development have been recognized by risk. Under the favorable conditions, it is still possible to continue to attract stable strategic investors, which is worth paying attention to. RNAV12 yuan / share, forecast 16-18eps0.35, 0.48,0.61 yuan, PE26/19/15 times. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating.