Main points of investment:
Event: the company announced its three-quarter report for 16 years, of which operating income was 341 million yuan, down 15.4% from the same period last year; net profit belonging to the parent company was 9 million yuan, up 8.21% from the same period last year; net profit after deduction was 6 million yuan, up 59% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share was 0.02 yuan. The company expects its annual performance growth range of-30% to 20% in 2016, mainly due to the short-term impact of the Russian market and a decline in the company's overseas revenue; the company's financing scale is larger than that of last year, and financial expenses are expected to increase.
The performance bottomed out.
The company's sales still fell 16% in the third quarter, but the gross profit margin was 27.6%, a sharp increase of 8.4 PCT over the same period last year. Mink raw material inventory has been replenished since the second half of this year. At the beginning of September, the auction price has risen 30% from the low, and the raw material price has come out of the W bottom. It is expected that the company's gross profit margin will come out of the trough and gradually return to the normal level in the future. In addition, the Russian exchange rate has also stabilized at the bottom this year, and the dollar has depreciated by 20% against the ruble since the beginning of the year. The appreciation of the rouble is conducive to the recovery of the company's export business to Russia in the future.
The company's layout in social ecommerce is steadily advancing.
Considering the company's previous layout at the back end of social ecommerce, it invested 5 million yuan in future 10% shares and laid out the front end in August. Youshe Technology is currently planning to set up a joint venture with a leading domestic supply chain company to build a cosmetics supply chain, which happens to provide strong back-end support for its online celebrities represented by Wang Yuepeng in the future. Beauty makeup from the supply chain is easier to do than clothing, seasonality, inventory problems are not big, the entry point is relatively simple. In the future, the company's weaknesses in the social e-commerce industry chain will be laid out, and its strengths will be further strengthened.
Give a "overweight" rating, with a target price of 20.5 yuan in the next 3-6 months.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 16-17 years is 0.05,0.06 yuan, corresponding to 347,299 times of PE. At present, the reserve price of the company is 14.31 yuan, which we think is a good safety cushion, considering that the company's performance has bottomed out and the layout of social e-commerce is becoming more and more perfect, it is optimistic in the medium and long term.
Risk hint. The company's layout in social e-commerce is lower than expected.