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彭顺国际(6163.HK)新股报告

Pengshun International (6163.HK) IPO report

羣益證券(香港) ·  Nov 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The collection of major event design and construction of body and equipped buses has been recorded in the world for more than 25 years. Markets include core markets (including Singapore and Malaysia) and developing markets (including Australia, Hong Kong, China and India). According to Ipsos data, based on the estimated earnings of Malaysia and Singapore markets, Malaysia and Singapore became one of the major bus manufacturers in 2015. The collection of bus products, including city buses and long-distance buses, are sold to public and private bus operators, major underwriters and their agents, bus distributors and manufacturers in a variety of forms: (I) they are assembled (semi-bulk and full-bulk) locally and then sold; and (ii) are assembled for direct delivery. The main dealers of the market include MAN, Mercedes-Benz, Scania and Volvo, and most of the above-mentioned major dealers have been engaged in business cooperation for more than 10 years.

We recommend investing in speculative stocks.

The company is in charge of

(1) there is a good track record of more than 25 years in the bus and private sector.

According to Ipsos data, based on the estimated earnings of Malaysia and Singapore markets respectively, Malaysia and Singapore were selected as one of the major bus manufacturers in 2015; (2) providing integrated solutions for customers in terms of design and design and bus equipment; (3) established lasting relationships with major dealers and bus operators in the target market. (4) the quantity and safety of the products are acceptable.

Overview of the industry

The global demand for buses is projected to increase to 418000 in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3%. ╱ Oceania will continue to dominate the market, while Africa will have the slowest growth rate. It is expected that the number of buses in use in the world will exceed about 8 million by 2020. It is estimated that the Asia-Pacific region is the largest bus and long-distance bus production market in 2015, accounting for about 79.5% of the market share. In countries such as China and India, the car ownership rate is very low, so there is a great demand for public transport. As a result, it is expected that the demand for buses in the area will increase.

Generally speaking, manufacturers use raw materials as the main materials for the production of buses and body parts, which have been recognized by the market in recent years. Over the years, many countries have had to pay attention to carbon dioxide emission standards, forcing bus and equipment manufacturers to use materials that meet environmental standards. Other metal bars are heavier and more resistant to corrosion. As a result, more and more bus and body parts manufacturers are used in bus structures. With the re-upgrading of the basic facilities of zero-emission zone, rapid charging and convenience, the prospect of being one of the main materials for buses and their bodies remains clear in the coming years. Generally speaking, raw materials, materials and materials are the main raw materials for the construction of buses and body parts.

Between 2010 and 2014, buses accounted for an average of 2.6% of annual commercial sales in Laisse. In 2015, the number of new buses boarding was 1955, accounting for 3.1% of the commercial fleet in the same year. Thanks to increased ticket control, continued infrastructure spending, and the government's efforts to improve the country's public transport network, the demand for buses seems to have increased. In addition, the government is expected to promote the use of public transport when it cancels fuel subsidies and boost bus sales in the past five years, with an average growth rate of 6.7% from 2016 to 2020.

The body building industry in West Asia increased from 184.1 ringgit (US $589 million) in 2010 to about 551.7 ringgit (US $148.1) in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.5%.

It is expected that bus sales will increase in the next five years, and the manufacturing industry will also grow to meet the demand for new buses throughout the country. As a result, the expected annual growth rate for health care is expected to increase from 551.7 ringgit (US $1.481 million) in 2015 to 763.1 ringgit (US $2.388 million) in 2020, with a combined annual growth rate of 6.7%.

As the utilization rate of buses increased at an average annual growth rate of 4.3% from 2010 to 2014, the demand for cars in Singapore is expected to increase. The total number of passengers is expected to reach about 39 million in 2015. As a result, bus utilization is expected to increase, so the increase in bus sales is expected to meet the country's bus demand. The total number of buses is expected to increase from 1798 in 2015 to 2214 in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3 per cent from 2016 to 2020.

Profit ability and duty number

Based on the historical records of the past three years, the revenue of the collection company increased from US $3.24 million in 2013 to US $4.11 million in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.6%. The profit increased from US $29 million in 2013 to US $52 million in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.2%. Revenue and profits in the first half of 2016 fell by 38.0% and 72.2%, respectively. The increase in income during the past period was mainly attributable to an increase in products sold to major and developing markets. The aggregate gross profit margin increased from 20.3% in 2013 to 22.4% in 2015, mainly due to the value of Siberian ringgit, most of the cost of the collection is calculated in ringgit, while most of the income is not calculated. Revenue fell by about 38.0% in the first half of the 2016 political year, due to more new projects undertaken in the first half of the year, and the products produced by these new projects have to be delivered, and related revenue will be confirmed in the second half of the political year.

Collection purpose

HK $6993 million (based on HK $1.31 per share of sales) from this collection will be used for the following purposes: about 53.7% (about HK $3755 million or US $484 million) will be spent on the construction of the new facilities in Malaysia. It is expected to be fully operational in 2017; about 10.1% (about HK $704 million or US $0.91 million) will be used for cutting machines and other types of equipment outside the market in several years. To develop sufficient services and improve overall production efficiency; about 27.2% (about 190 million Hong Kong dollars or about 245 million US dollars) will be used for bank loans with a principal of 1 million ringgit (equivalent to about 1.9 million Hong Kong dollars) to improve the capital structure. And about 9.0% (about HK $634 million or US $0.82 million) for general financial assistance.

Valuation

The estimated profit of US $21 million for the 2016 financial year provided by the market is calculated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4-21.8 times. Most of the revenue of the fair comes from Singapore and Malaysia, but it is said that it is important to increase the use of public transport in order to improve the efficiency of transport networks and promote insurance, but the development of the area where the fair is located has become mature and there is a lot of room for growth. entering a new market requires a big deal. There are not many bright spots in this stock, so we recommend speculative stocks.

Negative factor

(1) the total revenue of the five major customers accounts for about 90% of the total revenue. Since the bazaar has not entered into a long-term supply agreement with the customer, there is no guarantee that the customer will continue to be hired at the same amount of time. (2) there is no guarantee that the primary client will continue to successfully go through the investment process and continue to provide the list to the collection. (3) the profile is supplied entirely by Constellium and the upper structure of the assembly relies on the intelligent installation system; (4) the service depends on our skilled workers; (5) the products are used by the public every day, and the safety of major products is guaranteed; (6) the quality of raw materials may be affected by periodic fluctuations in the global market.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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