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阳光照明(600261)季报点评:盈利能力持续改善推动业绩高增长

招商證券 ·  Oct 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Increased profitability drives high profit growth. The company achieved revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in January-September, up 4.15% year on year; net profit attributable to parent company was 355 million yuan, up 31.4% year on year; Q3 achieved net profit of 137 million yuan in the single quarter, up 49.72% year on year. Revenue for a single quarter fell slightly short of expectations, and increased profitability drove continued rapid profit growth. The cycle affected the revenue growth rate in a single quarter, and the revenue cost gap widened and gross margin increased significantly. The lighting industry is relatively mature, maintaining a growth rate of 10-20%, with a fluctuating cycle of about 1 year. Since Q3 last year, we have entered a market adjustment cycle. The operations of overseas customers such as Lowe's influence the company's Q3 revenue growth rate, and it is expected that Q4 will gradually resume positive growth. In terms of profit, the decline in the price of LED light sources continued to be higher than that of the price of lamps, etc., and the price gap between revenue and cost continued to widen, and gross margin increased by 3.92 percentage points, driving a marked increase in profit. Furthermore, in the same period last year, the value of traditional light sources was drastically reduced by 161 million yuan. However, the combined positive contribution of 150 million yuan from foreign exchange and non-operating income was 150 million yuan, and net profit in Q3 continued to grow by 24% after deductions. Concentration continues to increase, and industry leaders have fully benefited. China's LED companies' share of global revenue increased from 5% in 2009 to about 25% in 2015. In recent years, the industry has entered a stage of accelerated integration, suppliers have been drastically reduced, and the share of leading companies represented by the company is expected to continue to increase. The company is expected to account for about 3% of the global lighting market in 2016, gradually increasing to 5-8% over the next 3-5 years. Focus on expanding overseas channels to increase revenue space, and mixed reform of subsidiaries to improve operating efficiency. The company is actively expanding overseas sales channels, and has successively set up companies in Dallas, Australia, Germany, France, etc. in the US. The foreign market has expanded more than 60 new customers to ensure the company's future growth. In addition, the company increased management incentives, increased management remuneration by 70% in the first half of the year, and achieved management shareholding in subsidiaries, which is expected to significantly improve operating efficiency. The profit growth rate may continue to be better than the revenue growth rate. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. We maintain our 16-18 net profit forecast of 487/63/805 million yuan. Corresponding to 0.34/0.43/0.55 yuan, Q4 RMB has once again entered a rapid depreciation range, and there is still a possibility that profit during the year will exceed expectations. The current valuation is low, with a target price of 9.18-10.2 yuan, corresponding to 27-30 times PE in '16, maintaining a highly recommended-A rating. Risk warning: Prices have dropped sharply, and business expansion has fallen short of expectations.

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