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西部牧业(300106)季报点评:短期业绩承压 长期坚定看好

中信建投 ·  Nov 2, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The incident company released a three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 501 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.88%; net profit was -58 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 400.50%. Revenue for the third quarter alone was 165 million yuan, up 8.42% year on year; net profit was 31 million yuan, down 2,669.81% year on year. Briefly, revenue for the third quarter stopped falling and rebounded, and net profit was still being suppressed. Revenue for the first and second quarters declined year on year, and revenue in the third quarter increased year on year. There were not only reasons for the increase in sales revenue from raw milk, but also factors for the increase in sales revenue of dairy products such as milk powder. On the other hand, the company's losses increased in the third quarter, mainly because the factors that had previously suppressed the company's performance had not improved or worsened: 1. Although domestic raw milk prices rebounded to a certain extent in August and September, the increase in domestic raw milk was not significant. The company's raw milk sales price was still hovering at a low level, and the raw milk business was still losing money. 2. The company's sales expenses continued to increase month-on-month in the third quarter, mainly for the new product marketing of the subsidiary Nishimu Dairy. 3. In the first half of the year, 150 million of the funds raised through allotment were used to repay bank loans. Although financial expenses declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, there was still some pressure on the company's performance. The Zhejiang imported Australian beef slaughter project was put into operation at the end of the year. The “Annual Imported 100,000 Australian Beef Cows Quarantine and Slaughter Project”, which was mainly invested and built by Zhejiang Yiheng Animal Husbandry, a major company that contributed marginally to the company's performance, will be put into operation by the end of the year. Assuming that the capacity utilization rate reaches half next year, it is conservatively estimated that 40 million net profit can be achieved, thus contributing 16 million yuan to the company's net profit. In addition, the bottoming out and recovery of raw milk prices favors the company's raw milk business, which can significantly increase the company's profit level. I have long been optimistic about the company's infant formula business, “Ming Xing” and “Because I Love Baby” infant formula under Ximu Dairy, are on the market. They are mainly sold overseas. They are sold online through Tmall, Jingdong's official flagship stores, and WeChat platforms. We actively expand various channels offline, and carry out marketing promotion close to consumers through village visits and community promotion. After two years of cultivation, Huayuan Dairy's “Golden Farm” milk powder has already begun to be released. We are also optimistic about Ximu Dairy's infant formula business, but Ximu Dairy's products and brands are new, and marketing requires time and financial resources, so it is difficult to contribute to performance in the short term. Profit forecasting and valuation. The company's losses this year are a foregone conclusion. Next year, the beef and raw milk business will contribute to performance. At the same time, the company has set tasks and goals to force corporate reforms to save costs. We expect the company to turn losses into profits next year. Furthermore, with regard to the rebound in raw milk prices next year, the market has gone from differences to constant expectations. The target directly corresponding to A-shares is Western Animal Husbandry. We believe that Western Animal Husbandry has both flexible performance and stock price flexibility, and we have reiterated our purchase. The short-term target price is 22 yuan.

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