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三夫户外(002780)季报点评:Q3业绩回暖 户外产业链布局不断深入

興業證券 ·  Oct 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company announced that it achieved revenue of 225 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2016, a year-on-year increase of 9.22%, a year-on-year net profit of 9.08 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%, and EPS of 0.14 yuan/share. Among them, revenue and net profit for the third quarter increased by 18.83% and 44.66%, respectively. At the same time, the company appointed Jia Liling and Zhong Benjun as the company's deputy general manager and financial director respectively. Furthermore, the company expects net profit to return to mother to fluctuate in the range of -25% to 25% in 2016. Comment: Q3 revenue growth accelerated, and online shopping channels offset the impact of the decline in stores. The company's Q1/2/3 revenue increased -8.14%/16.49%/18.83%, respectively, and the corresponding net profit to mother increased by -60.31%/-21.41%/44.66% year-on-year, respectively; the impact of the decline in physical stores gradually weakened, and the increase in competition and the increase in the share of online shopping channels led to a steady increase in the company's revenue. The gross margin was stable but the company's net profit declined due to the increase in expenses such as employee remuneration, office expenses, and intermediary service fees. The management fee ratio increased by 2.27 pct. The rapid growth in the online shopping business led to a sharp rise in credit card fees and online shopping platform fees, leading to a 0.29% increase in financial expenses. A fixed increase will build an integrated industrial chain for outdoor sports services, laying a solid foundation for offsite expansion. The company plans to build integrated outdoor sports operation centers in 7 cities of Suzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Changsha, covering services such as “outdoor event organization, outdoor camp operation+outdoor skills training, direct flagship store+experience center”. A complete integrated outdoor sports service industry chain will attract and cultivate a loyal customer base for the company's offsite expansion. Profit forecast and investment rating: After nearly 20 years of development, the company has become a leading enterprise for outdoor products and event operations in China. Relying on the company's rich events and loyal membership system, it has actively expanded projects such as camp+training, retail+experience integrated operation centers, etc., and has been recognized by relevant governments. Since its listing, the company has gradually achieved a national layout, cooperated with Jinding Investment to establish a leading edge in the outdoor industry chain, and established a leading edge in the outdoor industry chain. At the same time, the company was listed and launched in less than 1 month The employee equity incentive plan includes 61 employees, including management, middle management, and key employees who have worked for 12 years. The exercise price is 31.48 yuan, unlocked over 4 years (25% per year), guaranteed performance for the next 4 years (15%/33%/53%/75% increase over 15 years, respectively) and gives full play to the incentive advantages of private enterprises. The company's EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.55/0.64/0.75, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating. Risk warning: Offsite project expansion fell short of expectations; event hosting accidents; Haitao impact exceeded expectations.

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