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森远股份(300210)三季报点评:通过PPP模式转型成功 市政外包及道路养护万亿蓝海市场下高速成长标的

華創證券 ·  Nov 2, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment Highlights 1. The increase in emergency rescue equipment revenue increased revenue. Net profit declined due to increased financial expenses and subsidiary taxes. The company achieved operating income of 281 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.14% over the previous year. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in the company's emergency rescue equipment sales revenue. Among them: emergency rescue equipment achieved sales revenue of 122 million yuan, an increase of 35.37% over the same period of the previous year; asphalt pavement recycling equipment achieved sales revenue of 94.51 million yuan, a decrease of 26.53% over the same period of the previous year; municipal sanitation equipment achieved sales revenue of 2.05 million yuan, an increase of 56.91% over the same period of the previous year; mixing equipment achieved sales revenue of 58.28 million yuan, an increase of 115.83% over the same period last year. The company's net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was RMB 50.9 million, down 12.30% from the same period last year. The main reason was that financial expenses incurred by the company in the current period increased by 53.27% compared to the same period of the previous period, government subsidies decreased by 29.07% compared to the same period of the previous year, and income tax expenses due to the reduction in corporate tax benefits increased 207.64% over the same period last year. Combined, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company declined year-on-year. 2. The leading domestic road maintenance equipment company, established a joint venture through the PPP model to transform road maintenance services from equipment (20 billion market) to road maintenance services (200 billion market). At the end of the year, Senyuan is a leading domestic road maintenance equipment company. The company's main R&D projects include heat regeneration and resurfacing unit modular projects to improve the thermal efficiency of the hot air circulation system; and the integrated research site of the asphalt pavement remote monitoring project for geothermal regeneration systems and environmental protection projects. Testing, new product technologies such as the finalization of an oversized hot air heating regeneration repair truck, trial production of a multi-function suction sweeper, the finalization of 4 national 5 snowplows, 3 serialized national 5 repair trucks, and 1 national five filling truck repair truck. Maintain the company's absolute leading competitiveness in the road maintenance equipment market. At present, China has the highest number of highways in the world. Construction is coming to an end, and maintenance requirements are gradually being released. With the start of a major maintenance cycle, it is estimated that the annual demand for equipment will exceed 20 billion dollars, and the annual investment in maintenance services will exceed 200 billion dollars. Senyuan began its transformation in '13. From equipment manufacturing to maintenance layout, it has already established 19 joint ventures across the country. At the end of the year, the net profit of a single mature company is expected to exceed 10 million. Currently, Senyuan has an average share ratio of 30% to 40% in joint ventures, and it is expected that it will control high-quality companies in the future. 3. The joint venture cooperation model has entered the 2.0 era, expanding from a single road maintenance to the entire municipal service outsourcing era. The two winning 10 billion PPP projects marked the company's successful transformation into a municipal service outsourcer. Sharing Trillion Municipal Market Company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Enlightenment Sand. The joint venture model was upgraded again, and the joint venture model entered the 2.0 era. The business scope expanded from a single road maintenance to the entire municipal service outsourcing market. During the reporting period, the company won two bids for the Jilin Pipeline Pipeline PPP Project totaling about 10 billion dollars, marking the company's successful transformation into a municipal service outsourcing service provider. The 17-18 two-year construction period is expected to bring the company more than 100 million in annual profit contributions and push the company's performance into a period of explosion. 4. Senyuan is also deploying military industry+3D printing. Industrialization is imminent, and new contributions can be expected from the military: Senyuan Co., Ltd. has become a military level supplier in terms of new road maintenance machinery. The company's products such as large-scale heat regeneration units, road surface snow removal and cleaning equipment are included in military procurement and can join the military supply system. The company will also use sand laser 3D printing technology to participate in the rapid manufacture of parts such as ship propellers. Exploring the military market is another new growth point for the company's business performance. 3D printing: Senyuan began laying out the 3D printing industry chain in '14. Currently, the company is applying for military secrecy qualifications. The company's 3D printing supports key naval projects, and has great potential, and is expected to become the next Wang Huaming team (J-20 support). During the reporting period, the company's high-precision 3D printing project was progressing steadily, and it is expected that the industrial application of high-precision 3D printing will be realized in the near future. 5. Investment advice: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 110 million, 240 million, and 320 million yuan in 2016-2018, corresponding EPS of 0.41, 0.89, and 1.19 yuan, and corresponding PE of 57X, 26X, and 20X, maintaining strong recommendations. 6. Risk warning: The number of joint ventures established falls short of expectations, and PPP projects are progressing less than expected

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