Main points of investment:
Youshe technology positioning e-commerce ecosystem all-round service platform. Weibo Corp reward, advertising, online celebrity e-commerce and other cash models promote the blowout of the number of online celebrities, but also provide an opportunity for the development of online celebrity-related service industry. Youshe Technology, with a 30% stake in Wass, is the only full-service platform located in the e-commerce ecosystem, providing services for online celebrities, such as Weibo Corp subdivision and drainage, Taosi store operation, network-wide operation promotion, high-quality SKU supply chain, high-quality content production, online celebrity self-branding and IP, etc. In 2016, Youshe Technology made a layout in many links of the online celebrity service industry chain: 1) take a stake in Guangcan Internet celebrity operation.
Guangcan online celebrity operation services, such as Bombyx mori, Teng Yujia, Lu Jieyun and other head online celebrities, have established a training system for the common development of head and waist online celebrities, which are operated through multi-platforms such as Weibo Corp, BABA, third parties and other platforms. it is realized in a variety of modes such as clothing, make-up and advertising; 2) take a stake in Meitai Light Video original platform.
Short video mode with its concise, intuitive, interesting characteristics, coupled with the promotion of Sina Weibo Corp, has gradually become a necessary publicity means for online celebrities. Metro provides professional video production and communication services for online celebrities; 3) establish a cosmetics supply chain platform. Cooperate with Jumei to set up a supply chain company, focusing on providing supply chain services for cosmetics network celebrities; 4) consolidate the distribution platform of micro-sellers.
Through cooperation with 1688, optimize the supply chain of the micro-selling platform, establish an explosive operation team, and screen high-quality, high-commission SKU for online celebrities. In the future, Youshe Technology is expected to continue to integrate and distribute resources in the online celebrity industry chain: 1) cooperate with fashion groups to realize the IP and branding of online celebrities; 2) establish a women's clothing supply platform to solve the pain points of online celebrity selection and supply; 3) establish an offline distribution platform to integrate the distribution capabilities of offline stores and open online and offline channels; 4) expand the supply chain of health, accessories and other categories besides makeup and clothing.
. Operation ability to build the core competitive advantage of Youshe science and technology. As an early company in the industry to set foot in the economy of online celebrities, Youshe Technology has a strong first-mover advantage. through the strategic cooperation agreement with Sina Weibo Corp, it can share resources and cooperate with Weibo Corp in many fields. at present, Youshe Technology is responsible for the operation of Weibo Corp window background data, with a large amount of Weibo Corp background data. As a platform company with omni-directional layout, Youshe Technology can provide a number of supporting services for online celebrities not only through its own capabilities, but also with other companies in the industrial chain. With the improvement of the layout of Youshe Technology in the whole industry of online celebrity service, the synergy effect of industrial chain will be gradually reflected. Youshe Technology is expected to share the dividend of online celebrity social assets by virtue of its strong operation ability.
. At the moment in the future, the discussion of independent brands has been initially successful. In the future, we will focus on the incubation of cosmetic social e-commerce, and effectively integrate many links such as online celebrity incubation, fan operation and e-commerce management. The company has more than 20 celebrities who have the ability to realize cash in social e-commerce. Among them, the discussion of the head Internet celebrity "Wang Yuepeng Niko" own brand "NIKO BRAVO" has achieved initial success, with monthly sales between 150-2 million yuan. The success of independent brand discussion marks a major breakthrough on the road of online celebrity branding and IP. In the future, with the continuous growth of the number of fans and the expansion of self-brand awareness, the sales scale will be further improved.
. The layout of social e-commerce is expected to be further promoted. The company's layout in the field of social e-commerce is becoming more and more perfect, building an industry-wide system ranging from data analysis to online celebrity operation, supply chain management and cash platform, and can provide a series of supporting services for online celebrities on the platform. It is expected that the company's future layout in the field of social e-commerce will be further improved.
. Profit forecast and valuation. In terms of main business, taking into account the contribution of raw materials market, Fur City follow-up rental income and the gradual recovery of overseas markets, it is estimated that the company's net profit attributed to the parent company in 2016-18 is 1964 yuan, 2316 yuan and 34.43 million yuan respectively. With reference to the relevant comparable company's price-to-earnings ratio of 80 times in 2017, the main business is valued at 1.85 billion yuan. In terms of social e-commerce, with reference to pocket shopping's valuation of about $1.45 billion, Youshe Technology is expected to be valued at about 10 billion, and Voss holds a 30% stake, or about 3 billion. At the same time, Voss has a rich land reserve in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is estimated to be valued at about 1.6 billion. The overall valuation of the company is about 6.45 billion, corresponding to the target price of 18.53 yuan per share, corresponding to the 17-year valuation of 265 times, maintaining the overweight rating.
. Risk hint: the company's performance has declined further, and the ecological layout of social e-commerce is lower than expected.