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动力源(600405)深度研究:BAT的共同选择 云计算的动力之源

東吳證券 ·  Nov 14, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: HVDC products supply BAT. The company's key future core growth direction: In 2015, the company's HVDC products continued to rapidly increase sales revenue, successfully applied to China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom IDC, computer rooms, and were widely used by famous domestic Internet companies Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba, with broad market prospects. HVDC uses DC power supply, which reduces the internal conversion links of the system, improves energy conversion efficiency, and reduces the potential failure rate. 1. HVDC power system construction investment is reduced by 20%-40%, operating costs are reduced by 10%-20%, and the cost advantage is obvious; 2. High degree of integration, floor space savings of 60-80%, enabling IDC to deploy more servers or secure redundant space; 3. Reliability is greatly enhanced and maintenance is easy. HVDC systems have all-round advantages, and we believe that replacing UPS will be inevitable. We anticipate that the scale of China's cloud computing industry will reach the current level in the US by 2020. Cloud computing servers consume 120 billion kilowatts of electricity per year. Calculated at 60% of the operating load, they require 22.8 million KW of power supply. This is an important development opportunity for the data center power support industry. Considering that the unit price of data center power supply will drop to 1,000 yuan per KW in the future, the country will also form a huge market of more than 20 billion dollars within 4 years. If the HVDC method is used for all of these new power generation facilities, the HVDC market size will increase tenfold from the current level. We are very optimistic about the development of the HVDC industry in the next 5 years. The company has a multi-product line layout, and the traditional power supply business is developing steadily: In terms of communication power, the company leverages its comprehensive advantages such as product technology, cost, service and response speed. The company's market share in the traditional communication power supply sales field continues to expand, winning the first place in the share of Tower Company. In terms of energy saving business, the company's EPC projects under construction entered a profit period, causing the company's contract energy management business revenue to show a clear upward trend compared to the same period last year. Various projects continued to reap steady cash flow, and the revenue growth rate reached 118%. In terms of emergency power supplies, the rail transit industry is growing rapidly, and its market share is constantly increasing. In terms of module power supplies, profit increased by more than 100%, profit margins increased significantly, and profitability increased. Equity incentives and allotment plans boost confidence in the company's future development: the company granted 14.05 million restricted shares to 103 eligible incentive recipients. On the one hand, it retained critical R&D and management talents for the company's long-term development, and on the other hand, it provided a guarantee for the company's performance growth. The company's allotment plan was approved, and it plans to raise 800 million yuan in capital. After receiving capital, on the one hand, the company continued to expand the production capacity and technical process level of the Anhui factory, and on the other hand, invested close to 300 million dollars to build a R&D center to maintain the company's technological advantages. Furthermore, the company's repayment of part of the bank loan will also strongly reduce financial expenses and enhance the company's profitability. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.25 yuan, corresponding to PE 70/70/50 X. We are optimistic about the company's layout in the HVDC industry and expect it to enter a period of rapid development starting in 2017, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: HVDC power orders fall short of expectations, the development of the traditional power supply industry falls short of expectations, the risk of falling gross margin due to increased competition, and the risk that stock prices will be under pressure due to the recent unlocking of restricted stocks.

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