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荣之联(002642)季报点评:业绩同比下降幅度收窄 募投项目持续投入

平安證券 ·  Oct 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: On October 28, the company released its 2016 three-quarter report and forecast for the full year of 2016. The company achieved operating income of about 935 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2016, a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%; net profit of 56.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.31%. The full-year net profit growth rate is expected to decrease by 20.00% year over year to increase by 30.00%. Ping An's view: The year-on-year decline in performance narrowed: the company achieved operating income of about 935 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2016, a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%; realized net profit of 56.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.31%; net profit after deduction of 49.07 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.44%. Compared to the situation in the interim report, the decline in net profit of the financial mother narrowed markedly (the operating income in the interim report was basically the same as the previous year, and the net profit of the financial mother fell by 55.34%). The company's data performance for the third quarter in a single quarter was impressive, generating net profit of 29.8 million yuan, an increase of 117.65% over the previous year. The main reasons for the decline in net profit in the first three quarters were: First, the company's two new fund-raising projects, “Bio-5 Computation for Molecular Medicine” and “Comprehensive Operation Service System based on multi-dimensional big data in the Internet of Vehicles”, were all in the construction investment period. The company's active layout caused expenses to increase compared to the same period last year; second, the amount of investment income in the same period in 2015 was large, as a result of non-current asset disposal income, which was an occasional income, while the company's investment income in the same period this year was small; third, the company's annual salary adjustments led to an increase in wages and remuneration expenses. The company released a performance forecast on the same day. The company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to vary between 167.19 million and 271.68 million yuan for the full year of 2016. The corresponding growth rate is a year-on-year decrease of 20.00% to an increase of 30.00%. We are still optimistic about the growth of the company's annual performance: the company's main revenue and net profit still come from the construction of the Computing Center, the Five Computing Center, and the 2B Internet of Vehicles platform, and technical consulting and services after construction. Not only is it very seasonal, but the project implementation and confirmation cycle will greatly affect the gross margin and net profit volume of the current quarter. In particular, revenue in the first half of the year was low, and since most of it was a computing center construction and system integration business, gross margin was low, which also made it easy for net profit to fluctuate greatly from year to year. The high year-on-year increase in the performance of this year's three-quarter report in a single quarter is an example: the gross margin for a single quarter reached 44.61%, which is basically the level of the fourth quarter of 2015. It can be seen that the company's second half of the year was not only the vast majority of revenue recognition, but the increase in the share of service revenue made it the main driving force for the annual net profit growth. The overall Internet of Vehicles is developing rapidly, and the future of the company's layout in the UBI field is impressive: in an environment where the technical environment is mature and policies are fully promoted, the number of Internet of Vehicles users is growing rapidly. According to data from the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, by 2015, the number of Internet of Vehicles users in China had exceeded 10 million. It is estimated that by 2020, the penetration rate of Internet of Vehicles users in China will be close to 25%, and the corresponding market size of the Internet of Vehicles will exceed 500 billion, so there is considerable space. China's UBI market has just started, but the technical conditions and social demand conditions are relatively mature. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of cars owned in China will reach 277 million in 2020, and the corresponding UBI car insurance space is a total annual scale of 80 to 100 billion. The company's five-computing platform for gene sequencing data and analysis is expected to enjoy the rapid growth of the industry: as the cost of gene sequencing continues to decline and the importance of genetic data in the work of various research institutes continues to rise, there is a huge demand for specialized third-party genetic data analysis platforms. Professional genetic data analysis platforms can provide massive data storage, automated analysis, data transmission, bioinformation research and sharing services. The rapid development of gene sequencing technology in recent years and the drastic reduction in testing costs have laid the technical foundation for its commercial application. According to statistics and forecasts from BCC Research, the total global gene sequencing market grew from 7.941 million US dollars in 2007 to 4.5 billion US dollars in 2013. It is expected that the global market will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. It will reach 11.7 billion US dollars in 2018, with an average compound annual growth rate of 21.2%. The future genetic sequencing market has great potential for development. Investment Rating: We maintain our revenue and earnings forecasts for the full 16 years of the company. The company's revenue from 2016 to 2018 is estimated to be $1,815 million, $2,227 million and $2,797 million, respectively, with growth rates of 17.4%, 22.7% and 25.6% respectively; net profit for the next three years is 265 million, 332 million and 466 million, with growth rates of 26.8%, 25.3% and 40.4%. Considering that the company has actively deployed the Internet of Vehicles big data platform and bioinformatics 5 in the past two years, there is considerable room for the future to maintain the company's “recommended” rating. Risk warning: The risk of increased competition in the field of the Internet of Vehicles and gene sequencing.

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