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华控赛格(000068)季报点评:海绵城市PPP项目持续推进 费用增加致前三季度亏损扩大

東方證券 ·  Nov 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The core view is that the increase in revenue is mainly due to the rapid growth of the technology consulting and planning service business and the merger and addition of subsidiaries: according to the company's interim report, the growth rate of the technology consulting and planning service business is relatively fast. At the same time, the three companies Central Century (100% equity), Qingqin (17.9% equity), and Alipay (18.93% equity) have led to a year-on-year increase in revenue. The resulting sharp increase in operating costs, management expenses, and sales expenses led to a year-on-year increase in losses in the previous three quarters. The Sponge City PPP project continues to be implemented, and additional funding relieves financial pressure: the company has successively won the bid for the Qian'an Sponge City Construction PPP Project (total investment of 1.12 billion yuan) and the Suining Sponge City Construction PPP Project (total investment of 1 billion yuan), continuing to expand its advantages in the field of sponge city construction; at the same time, the company's non-public stock offering plan (total capital to be raised no more than 4.856 billion yuan) continues to advance. After the issuance is completed, the controlling shareholder Huarongtai's shareholding ratio will exceed 30%. At the same time, capital raised will effectively ease the company's capital at the management level stress. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations suggest that we maintain the company's net profit for 2016-2018 at 0.36, 2.85 and 472 million yuan respectively. Regardless of this additional EPS, it is 0.04, 0.28, and 0.47 yuan respectively. If this increase is considered, EPS will be diluted, but there is plenty of room for future profit growth in the company's fundraising projects, and performance is expected to improve significantly. The current valuation of comparable companies is 34 times that of 17 years. Considering the scarcity and growth potential of the company in the field of sponge city planning and construction, a 20% premium, that is, 40 times PE in 2017, is maintained at a target price of 11.2 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning that there is uncertainty in the bidding for PPP projects. The number and speed of order execution will significantly affect the 2017-2018 performance; there may be uncertainty about the capital raised by the non-public offering of shares; due to factors such as the macroeconomic situation and the government's ability to pay, the construction progress and payment situation of the Sponge City project may be lower than expected;

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