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飞利信(300287)三季报点评:全年增长无忧 子领域保持高增速

民生證券 ·  Nov 4, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  1. Incident Overview On October 27, the company released the full report for the third quarter. The report shows that in the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved operating income of 1.42 billion yuan, an increase of 97% over the previous year; realized net profit of 308 million yuan, an increase of 276% over the previous year, and 0.23 yuan for both basic and diluted EPS. 1. Analyze and judge the high growth rate of performance. In the first three quarters of high growth in big data and internet education, the company's big data and internet education sectors achieved high performance growth, and the revenue of the big data sector achieved explosive growth of 9512.22%, and revenue from the Internet education sector grew by 452.58%. The main reason for the sharp increase in the company's performance is that through deep resource integration and business integration, the competitiveness of the four major business segments continues to increase. At the same time, the performance of Jingtu Information, Jiedong Control, Chengdu Efining, and Internet World is included in the scope of the company's consolidation. Investing in the Timber Exchange, which brought profits to the company from offline to online. During the reporting period, the company successively invested in the establishment of Beijing Timber Industry Electronic Trading Center Co., Ltd., Datong Forest Commodity Trading Center Co., Ltd., and Tianjin Yicheng Smart City Research Institute Co., Ltd., and the company participated in the informatization and subsequent operation of the trading center through this move. Smart city revenue is growing steadily, and future growth is stabilizing. The company has made progress in PPP projects related to people's livelihood, and has joined forces with other companies to sign PPP projects for smart agriculture construction in Nanyang City. Through cooperation with state-owned companies, it participated in the construction of a social security monitoring system in the “safe capital” of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The subsidiary Donglan Digital continues to carry out research and development work on smart water services and smart party building. The subsidiary Jingtou Information has carried out six R&D tasks, including a digital geographical name government management and social service system, a comprehensive military and civilian integration and emergency management system, a smart city integrated management and public service system, an intelligent field cultural relics monitoring and inspection management system, an underground integrated pipe gallery operation supervision service system, and a comprehensive service system for sponge city construction. Explosive growth in the big data business The company is based on the general development direction of the big data sector set at the beginning of the year: providing data analysis services to industry customers, completing comprehensive corporate and personal credit services, public opinion services, accurate marketing, etc., to achieve explosive growth in revenue and profit. Internet education is progressing smoothly. The company has strengthened its strategic positioning and business integration in the national training network and connected world. On the basis of ensuring the continuous development of one brand, two platforms, and three businesses, it has launched a mechanical cloud project, which has achieved certain social recognition. During the reporting period, the National Training Network continued to make profits in admissions, in-service research projects, undergraduate programs, specialty projects, employment bureau projects, job training programs, talent storage programs, and psychological training programs; it successfully developed overseas study abroad programs. 3. Profit forecasts and investment suggestions maintain a “highly recommended” rating. The company's EPS for 16-18 is estimated to be 0.44 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively. By splitting the market value corresponding to the company's four major business profits, Smart City has an estimated net profit of 33-350 million, with a market value of 178-18.9 billion according to the average 54X valuation of the smart city sector; the net profit of the big data business is 100 million, and its market value is 5.3 billion according to the average 53X valuation of the big data sector; the net profit of the smart conference business is 140 million, with a market value of 8.26 billion yuan according to the average valuation of the Internet education average of 72X. After adding this, the total market value of the company should be 342-35.34 billion, and the corresponding share price for the next 12 months should be 23.5-24.3 yuan. 4. Risk warning: 1) The development of mergers and acquisitions fell short of expectations; 2) Technological innovation risks.

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