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江铃汽车(000550/200550)调研纪要:商乘并举 底部回升

中金公司 ·  Nov 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key points Recently, we have researched listed companies and had communication with company management. There are obvious signs that the company's fundamentals have reversed. The sales volume of the S330 in the first month of launch was close to 5,000 units, but after the launch of the new Quanshun, sales volume exceeded expectations. The sales volume of the Yusheng S330 was better than expected, and Yusheng will establish an independent sales network in the future: after the 9.26 launch, Yusheng S330 benefited from its product positioning and the peak season in the car market. The sales volume in October reached about 4,700 units in a single month, driving the company's overall Yusheng SUV sales volume to 6,816 units, an increase of 4.72 times over the previous year, which was the main contributor to the company's sharp increase in sales in October. Currently, the S330 is still in the delivery stage. The order situation is good. At the pace of market-based production, industry terminals are still out of stock. We expect that sales of the S330 will gradually rise in the future. However, the current monthly sales volume of the S350, which is positioned in the off-road SUV segment, has also picked up to more than 2,000 units. Terminal research shows that the four-wheel drive version of the S350 gasoline is in short supply. In the future, the Yusheng brand will also establish an independent sales network to help the company further develop the passenger car SUV market. Retail sales of Roadshaker terminals rebounded to an average of 1,000 units per month, and the first month of the launch of the new Quanshun was better than expected: Everest's sales in October climbed further, reaching 852 units, an increase of 14.7% over the previous month, which is close to the 1,000-vehicle mark. Quanshun sold 5,544 vehicles in October, an increase of 20.73% over the previous year. Among them, the sales volume of the new Quanshun, which was launched in September, reached nearly 1,000 units in the first month, which was clearly better than the company's expectations. After the classic Transit was discontinued at the end of this year, the new Quanshun is expected to become the company's main product for light customers. Next year, the company's Ford MPV Toureo automatic transmission will be launched, which is expected to further boost the commercial MPV market. JMC Light Bus will go on the market next year, and the commercial vehicle layout will be further improved: to cope with market competition, the company's own brand JMC Light Bus will be launched next year. In addition, the company's traditional commercial vehicles such as light trucks and pickups have also begun to fully recover. It is expected that the company will officially launch a heavy truck model next year. In the future, the company's JMC commercial vehicle brand will be deployed in various commercial vehicle segments such as light trucks, pickups, light buses, and heavy trucks, and the product lineup will be improved. It is recommended that Jiangling Motors will be more flexible in its performance next year. Currently, it is only hovering at the bottom, so it is worth laying out for next year. We maintain the recommended rating for A shares and the target price of RMB 35; maintain Jiangling's recommended rating for B shares and the target price of HK$25. A and B shares correspond to 14.6x and 8.9x 2016e P/E, respectively. The profitability of risky new products fell short of expectations.

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