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科泰电源(300153):发电机组龙头进军新能源汽车

中金公司 ·  Dec 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  For the first time, investment highlights covered Ketai Power Company (300153), which gave a neutral rating. The target price is 20.69 yuan. The valuation is relatively high, and there is potential room for growth of 7.70%. The reasons are as follows: Based on logistics vehicle operations, the NEV industry is laid out. The NEV industry is close to a point where it will resume high growth after the industry is rectified. The company has adjusted its short-term strategy to focus on electric logistics vehicle leasing and charging services. The cost advantage of using electric vehicles of about 27% and the convenience of the rental model have determined the definitive increase in demand, making it a highly profitable business field. At the same time, the company will continue to invest in the NEV industry chain, and this sector will provide the company with performance flexibility. However, due to factors such as the decline in potential subsidies, there is still uncertainty about the company's logistics vehicle promotion plan. The leading position in the main business is stable, and overseas market expansion has been accelerated. The company further stabilized the core domestic generator set industry market, enhanced its dominant position in the communications field, and rapidly expanded its revenue scale in the data center field. In overseas markets, taking advantage of the market and location advantages of the Singaporean subsidiary in Southeast Asia to gradually improve overseas sales channels, and expand overseas market space through the acquisition of Hong Kong Tide Power (Tide Power), it is expected to achieve an annual net profit contribution of over 10 million yuan in the future. The horizontal and vertical integration of epitaxial expansion has limited contribution to short-term performance. Zhiguang Energy's high performance growth of nearly 40% in recent years has brought stable investment income to the company. In addition, the company is expanding horizontally into hybrid energy and gas generator sets in the field of generator sets, seeking new highlights in performance growth. At the same time, the company plans to enter the upstream engine industry through acquisitions and carry out vertical integration of the industrial chain using the model of overseas brands (Lister Petter) +domestic manufacturers (Chongqing Cork). However, since the relevant deal has not yet been officially implemented, we believe that its contribution to the company's performance will be limited in the short term. What is our biggest difference from the market? The company's main business will maintain relatively rapid growth in the future, and at the same time, it will continue to be deployed along the NEV industry chain to provide some flexibility in performance. Potential catalysts: introduction of NEV subsidy policies; progress in logistics vehicle leasing business; follow-up investment and M&A opportunities in the NEV sector. The profit forecast and valuation estimate that the company's EPS for 16-18 will be 0.15 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively, and the CAGR will be 46.0%. Combining the three sectors of the company, we used a segmented valuation method to give the company a target market value of 6.62 billion yuan, with a target price of RMB 20.69 billion. There is room for 7.70% increase from the current stock price. The corresponding valuation of the current company's stock price is relatively high, covering the “neutral” rating for the first time. Subsidies for risky new energy logistics vehicles have declined more than expected or their introduction has been delayed; overseas business expansion has fallen short of expectations.

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