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广弘控股(000529)深度研究:站在新一轮发展起点

國金證券 ·  Nov 14, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment logics are optimistic that the company is based on the following three points: 1. The majority shareholder mixed reform and executive shareholding is complete, and the company is at a new starting point. The mixed asset reform of Guang Hong, the majority shareholder, was completed in December last year. Two partner companies owned by Xin Jin An received 49% of Guang Hong's assets. New Jin An's main business is real estate development, and it is expected that the company's extensive land resources will be revitalized in the future. In December of the same year, Mr. Cai Biao, who was only 37 years old, became the chairman of Guanghong Holdings. Half a year later, the core management and management, including the chairman and general manager, increased their holdings of the company by 1.078% at a price of 9.058 yuan/share through a hierarchical asset management plan. Up to now, we believe that all preparations have been gradually put in place, and the company is expected to stand at the starting point of a new round of development. 2. Multi-path selection to escort the company's development: (1) Outreach assistance, collaboration with the main business. In its annual report, the company proposed “actively exploring capital operations centered on mergers and acquisitions to promote the leapfrog development of enterprises” and proposed “speeding up the pace of epitaxial development, increasing the strength of mergers and acquisitions in the education, food industry or related industries, and expanding the breadth and length of the company's operations.” The company is expected to help the company further develop through extension. (2) Leveraging major shareholders to coordinate resources. Earlier, Guanghong Asset proposed using Guanghong Holdings to speed up asset integration in the main green food business owned by Guanghong Asset to further improve corporate capital expansion and capital appreciation capabilities. The company is currently the only listing platform owned by Guanghong Asset, the majority shareholder. The platform's resource value is outstanding, and it is also in line with the direction of the Guangdong Provincial State-owned Assets Administration Commission to increase the asset securitization rate of provincial enterprises, which is worth paying attention to. 3. The stability of the company's main business and the revaluation of land value are expected to provide the company with a margin of safety. (1) The company's main business provides a margin of safety. The company's main business is mainly divided into two major sectors: book distribution and food. The book business sector has a stable market and competitive pattern, contributing about 80 million dollars in annual profits. Among the breeding and food business, the farming business is subject to certain cycles of fluctuations, and the food business is relatively stable. With the current business unchanged, the profit of the main business is expected to remain above 100 million dollars. (2) Land revaluation is expected to provide the company with a margin of safety. The company currently has more than 1397.37 acres of non-commercial residential land, distributed in Guangzhou, Foshan, Zhongshan, etc., and is expected to be converted to commercial and residential land in the future. If progress goes smoothly, according to local commercial land valuation, the company is expected to obtain a land value of around 5 billion dollars, providing a safe margin for the company's value. The investment recommendations comprehensively consider factors such as the company's own changes, the average price increase of 9.058 yuan/share, and the margin between performance and land safety. We gave a target market value of 10 billion yuan, a target price of 17.13 yuan, and a “buy” rating. The pace of reform of venture companies has fallen short of expectations, and the pace of land reclassification has fallen short of expectations.

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