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围海股份(002586)点评:首单传媒并购落地 第二主业加速拓展

中泰證券 ·  Dec 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Incident: On December 7, the 12th meeting of the board of directors reviewed and passed the “Proposal on the Equity and Capital Increase of Beijing Juguang Film Technology Co., Ltd.” The first media acquisition was implemented, and the layout of the second main business accelerated. “Weihai Culture” (the listed company owns 100% of the property share) used its own capital and bank loans totaling 111 million yuan to increase capital and transfer shares from some shareholders. After the transaction is completed, “Weihai Culture” will hold 41.11% of the shares in “Jiguang Huiying”, making it the largest shareholder of “Jiguang Huiying”. The acquisition valuation is only 11.74 times, and the consolidated performance is expected to increase significantly in January next year. “Spotlight Painting” promised a total non-net profit deduction of 17 million/23 million/31 million yuan in 16/17/18 (if the three-year promised performance is completed, Weihai Co., Ltd. promises to acquire the remaining shares). At the time of acquisition, “Spotlight Painting” had an overall valuation of 270 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 11.74 times in '17, and a compound net profit growth rate of 35% from '16 to '18, making the purchase price reasonable. Currently, the dynamic PE of Weihai Co., Ltd. fluctuates about 30 times, and the consolidated statement will have a positive impact on the company's valuation. Revenue for the first three quarters was $1.33 billion, up 6.95% year over year. Net profit for the first three quarters was $0.28 billion, up 41.62% year over year. Net profit is expected to grow in the range of 30% to 70% for the whole year. Third-quarter revenue of 482 million in a single quarter was up 23.27% year over year. Net profit for the quarter was $14 million, up 212.9% year over year. The main reason for the sharp increase in net profit in a single quarter was the low base for the third quarter of '15. Net profit growth range for the whole year was 30%-70%. BT's turnover revenue in the fourth quarter was higher than the increase in the third quarter to guarantee a high increase in net profit. The fourth quarter was the traditional settlement peak for the Weihai reclamation business. Data from previous years showed that the fourth quarter's revenue generally accounted for 35% to 40% of the annual revenue. Risk warning: Investors are kindly requested to pay attention to the risk that BT project repayments will not meet expectations, and the risk that the second main business will expand more slowly than expected. Investment advice: buy rating. We forecast the company's net profit of 0.94/3.47/465 million yuan in 16/17/18, EPS of 0.13/0.33/0.45 yuan, respectively (considering the effects of additional distribution and dilution in 17/18), corresponding price-earnings ratio of 77.85/30.67/22.49 times, and a CAGR of 94.56% in 2015-2018. Taking into account positive changes in epitaxial extension, a PE valuation of 40 times over 17 years was given, and the target price was 13.00 yuan.

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