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华录百纳(300291):综艺节目收入确认延缓 四季度业绩可期

太平洋證券 ·  Nov 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Event: On November 18, 2016, Hualu Baina held an investor exchange meeting. The director attended the exchange meeting and explained the company's recent business situation. Revenue from the variety sector has yet to be confirmed, so the fourth quarter is worth looking forward to. Revenue from the variety sector mainly comes from “Whirlwind,” “Song King,” and “My New Clothes.” Among them, the first season of “Crossover Song” basically achieved a break-even balance, and “My New Clothes” performed steadily after the first broadcast in September. It aired one-third during the reporting period. Only a small portion of revenue was confirmed. Most of the revenue will be confirmed in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of reserves for film and television projects, and performance is expected to grow steadily. Revenue from the first round of TV series such as “Wrestling City” and “Crouching Tiger” and the second round of distribution of past shows have all been confirmed, constituting the main source of revenue for the film and television sector. In addition, of the 11 TV dramas invested in production throughout the year, “My Love Is You and Me” is currently being filmed, and “I Am Not an Elite” has entered post-production. The distribution of the TV series adapted from the popular IP “Midnight Diner” is doing well. The company has recorded price records for a single episode of the TV series in history, and the revenue generated is high. However, due to the lack of confirmation conditions during the reporting period, the third quarter results were delayed to a certain extent, and the results for the fourth quarter and the year 17 can be expected. The scale of sports continues to expand, becoming a new driving force for performance growth. The sports sector achieved revenue of 231 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, a significant increase compared to 58.51 million in 2015, which became a new driving force for the company's performance. Sports business revenue is mainly contributed by sports marketing (Chinese team, Chinese Super League, Football Association Cup tournament marketing resources) and sports media (Beijing TV live La Liga) business; in terms of tournaments, the Champions League Basketball China Tour has also been officially held in Shenzhen and Chengdu, and its own tournament cultivation has officially taken steps; at the same time, the company has invested in setting up subsidiaries in Hong Kong to connect with international sports resources and form an international management team. Internationalization has become a new strategy for the company's sports sector development. Maintain an investment rating of “excess holdings”. The company successfully issued a steady increase in issuance, issuing 104 million shares, with a net capital raised of $2.172 billion. The capital raised will be invested in the procurement of film and television, variety shows, sports, and media resources. In the future, the company will integrate more advantageous media and entertainment industry resources to accelerate the construction of a media and entertainment platform company. The company was given profit forecasts of 0.48 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.71 yuan for 2016-2018, corresponding to 48 times, 39 times PE, and 32 times PE, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning. Competition in film and television variety shows heightens risks, making it difficult for new businesses to meet expected risks.

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