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津膜科技(300334):签订10亿水治理PPP项目 成长逻辑正逐步兑现

廣發證券 ·  Dec 13, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Core view: Signed the 1 billion Liupanshui City District-wide Water Affairs Integration and Water Treatment PPP Project Company Announcement and the Liuzhi Special Administrative Region People's Government of Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province signed a cooperative development agreement on integrated water services and accurate domestic sewage treatment PPP projects throughout the Liuzhi Special Administrative Region, with a total planned investment of 1 billion yuan. The project covers all domestic sewage treatment in villages, townships, and urban areas in the Liuzhi Special Administrative Region, and comprehensive treatment of black and smelly water bodies. The order is a large-scale water treatment integrated PPP project recently signed by the company, demonstrating the company's comprehensive water treatment capabilities and offsite development capabilities. PPP orders will continue to increase. After the fixed increase is completed, the strength is expected to further strengthen the implementation of the current 1 billion investment cooperation agreement in the Liuzhi Special Administrative Region, demonstrating the company's ability to obtain large PPP orders. Considering the large-scale subscription of the State Investment Group and the introduction of Hebei Construction Investment, the potential of the company's PPP underwriting platform will be further strengthened. At the same time, the company announced that it plans to acquire 100% of Jinqiao Water Technology's shares, which will make up for the company's shortcomings in qualifications and can greatly enhance the company's ability to undertake projects and implement comprehensive management projects. The acquisition of Jiangsu Kemi consolidates the company's membrane technology market position and is expected to improve performance elasticity. The main business of Jiangsu Kemi, which is another target of mergers and acquisitions of the company, is membrane product sales and provision of membrane water treatment solutions. It has long-term cooperation with Koch in the US, a leader in the global membrane field, and its core technical advantages are obvious. After the company absorbs and integrates Kemi tubular membrane and ceramic membrane technology, we expect to further strengthen the company's core competitiveness in the film field; Kemi is rich in customer resources in South China, and will complement the company in the future to improve performance elasticity at the technical and market levels. We are about to enter the era of large PPP orders. The “buy” rating is given regardless of acquisitions or ancillary financing. The company's EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.25 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.50 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 71, 49, and 36 times. Considering ancillary financing and assuming a consolidated schedule for 2017, the company's EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.25 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 71, 32, and 23 times. This large-scale PPP order is gradually verifying the logic of the company's expansionary growth. It is expected that after the additional issuance is completed, it is expected that the qualifications will be completed and the project can be carried out. The upward flexibility in performance is high, and a “buy” rating will be given. Risk indicates that the acquisition progress falls short of expectations; integration falls short of expectations; PPP orders fall short of expectations;

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