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嘉欣丝绸(002404)跟踪报告:丝绸行业领军者 延伸供应链金融服务

海通證券 ·  Dec 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The silk industry looks at China; Jiang, Zhejiang, Yunnan, and Gui each have advantages. Due to the characteristics of the mulberry farming industry, 70% of global cocoon production comes from China. Due to the special nature of raw materials, the silk industry is unable to move to Southeast Asia, and China's absolute advantage within the industry is obvious. From a domestic perspective, production processes such as silkworm farming and silk garment manufacturing are mostly in Jiangzhe. With the increase in production costs and the development of other industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the high environmental requirements for silkworm farming have gradually moved the production of raw materials to the southwest region. The sericulture industry in Guangxi and Yunnan is developing rapidly. After several years of development, most of the production capacity has been transferred. However, since back-end garment manufacturing requires skilled workers to carry out fine processing, back-end businesses with high added value and high gross profit are still in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. The characteristics of the wire industry determine the basis for supply chain financing. As a finished product with a high unit price, the price of raw materials for silk products is high, and industry attributes determine the need for seasonal stocking during the cocoon drying period, while the high price makes it impossible for small-scale manufacturers to fully stock up. Furthermore, the non-fixed asset properties of silk cannot be used as collateral to help small enterprises obtain financing from banks. The real needs of industry financing and the reality that investors cannot identify the value of collateral are mismatched. There is an urgent need for enterprises in the industry that can determine the value of silk to bridge the financing process. The supply chain financing service carried out by the company is based on the above industry reality, establishing cooperation with banks. The company, as a core enterprise in the industry, cooperates with banks to finance small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry, and forms a three-way closed loop: banks lend money to small enterprises that need to purchase raw materials, and the company uses the company as a guarantee for risk control, while the financing enterprise deposits silk raw materials to the company as collateral, and the products are pledged in the company's warehouses, and the company is responsible for supervising and charging service fees. Set up logistics bases to grasp the price trend of raw materials. The company plans to raise no more than 396 million yuan at a price of no less than 7.34 (yuan/share), of which 150 million yuan will be used for the construction of a warehousing and logistics base. Specific projects include: 1) 10,000 square meters of standard silk storage; 2) 25,000 square meters of standard cocoon storage; 3) 20,000 square meters of silk processing and trading market; 4) 5,000 square meters of auxiliary office buildings and handling workshops; and 5) the establishment of an 18,000 square meter distribution transit warehouse in Jiaxing. The logistics base in Yizhou, Guangxi is close to the origin of raw materials in the industry. The company can more intuitively understand changes in the raw materials market and price fluctuations, so as to make value judgments on collateral products. Many of the company's businesses are developing steadily. The company is the only listed company in the silk industry, covering the entire industrial chain. The company was originally a leading silk import and export foreign trade company, and later underwent institutional restructuring. Due to the comprehensive coverage of the industrial chain, there are large business differences. From raw materials (cocoons) to silk, manufacturing, clothing, to foreign trade exports, all businesses are involved, forming a leading company with brands and influence in the industry. Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's main business has strong brand advantages and industrial chain integration advantages. We are optimistic that the company will achieve cost control and efficiency improvement through intelligent upgrading on the basis of the steady development of its main business. At the same time, it is optimistic that the Golden Silkworm Network will use the establishment of a storage base in Guangxi to carry out a series of value-added services for industrial integration and performance growth. The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 7406, 9068 and 98.26 million yuan in 2016-2018, a year-on-year increase of 26.76%, 22.45% and 8.36%, corresponding to the 16-18 EPS of 0.14, 0.17 and 0.19 (yuan/share). Referring to relevant comparable companies, the price-earnings ratio in 2017 was between 35X-95X, giving the company 57XPE in 2017, corresponding to a target price of 9.93 yuan/share, increasing the rating. Risk warning: Raw material prices fluctuate greatly, and the export environment is sluggish.

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