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金明精机(300281):寒冰渐融江水暖 工业4.0和大健康战略值得看好

平安證券 ·  Dec 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points The downstream industry is picking up, and the high-end film business space is vast: the company is the leader in film blow molding equipment in China. The main downstream is plastic film manufacturing, and its performance is greatly affected by the incremental level of film production. We forecast that the national film production will increase by about 850,000 tons in 2016, which is about 64% higher than the increase in 2015. Downstream recovery will drive improvements in the performance of the company's main business. At the same time, the downstream product structure continues to change, and the proportion of high-end film applications is gradually increasing, bringing new opportunities to the company. “Wisdom Jinming”, fixed growth and transformation of industry 4.0: Formulate an increase plan to issue no more than 50 million shares, raise no more than 506 million yuan in capital, and general manager Ma Jiazhen's subscription amount is not less than 100 million yuan. The fixed increase capital is mainly used to build three major projects: a special multi-functional film factory project, an agricultural ecological film intelligent equipment project, and a five-terminal big data smart service platform to build a Jinming intelligent ecosystem, transform and upgrade into a smart factory solution provider within the industry, and thus achieve the strategic goal of Jinming Industry 4.0. The future prospects are promising. “Health Jinming”, pioneering the deployment of rehabilitation robots: the global rehabilitation robot market was US$577 million in 2015, and is expected to grow to US$1.73 billion by 2020, with a compound growth rate of 24.51%. The company formally signed an agreement with Tsinghua University on July 15, 2015 to cooperate in the development of rehabilitation robots. It is a pioneer in the field of rehabilitation robots in China and is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the industry. The implementation of the employee stock ownership plan shows management's confidence: the first phase of the employee stock ownership plan has been completed. The average transaction price is RMB 19.21, and the number of shares purchased accounts for about 1.68% of the company's total share capital. The employee stock ownership plan involved a wide range of directors, supervisors, senior management, and core technical backbone, etc., showing the management's great confidence in the future development of the company. Investment advice: We believe that the gradual recovery of the macroeconomic and downstream industries and the growing high-end film market will bring new opportunities for the company's development. I am optimistic about the positive effects of the company's fixed growth projects on the company's future development, and the broad future development space of the company's big health strategy. The company's EPS for 2016, 2017, and 2018 is estimated to be 0.18 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively, corresponding to current estimated price-earnings ratios of 106 times, 63 times, and 46 times. First coverage, with a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: (1) macroeconomic downturn and insufficient downstream demand; (2) big health strategy progress falls short of expectations; (3) sales of high-end functional film fall short of expectations. 2014A 2015A 2016E

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