Main points of investment
The company is a well-known leading enterprise of proprietary Chinese medicine in China, with annual sales income of more than 100 million varieties and 17 over 50 million varieties. Its main products have established a strong competitive advantage in the field of cardio-cerebrovascular and gynecological medicine.
Domestic cardio-cerebrovascular leader: in 2015, the company's total market share of cardio-cerebrovascular proprietary Chinese medicine is 9.23%, and it is the largest manufacturer of cardio-cerebrovascular proprietary Chinese medicine in China. The market share of its leading products Danhong injection, Naoxintong capsule and Wenxin granule in cardio-cerebrovascular proprietary Chinese medicine is 4.95%, 2.28% and 1.87% respectively, all of which are in the top 20 cardio-cerebrovascular proprietary Chinese medicine. The total income of 2013-2016H1 is 6.752 billion yuan, 7.863 billion yuan, 8.817 billion yuan and 3.741 billion yuan respectively.
Rich in variety reserve: the company is currently studying more than 180 projects, covering cardio-cerebrovascular, gynaecology, orthopedics, internal medicine, antibiotics and other fields. Among them, there are 24 varieties of traditional Chinese medicine, 53 varieties of chemical drugs and 4 varieties of biological drugs, and many products are in the stage of declaration and listing. The successive approval and listing of new products is expected to provide a new growth point for the company's future development.
Profit forecast: we estimate that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 will be 2.56,2.91,3.26 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE from 2016 to 2018 will be 48 times, 42 times and 37 times respectively. As a leading enterprise of proprietary Chinese medicine in the field of cardio-cerebrovascular medicine in China, the sales scale and market share of the company's three leading products are relatively high, and the growth rate has been affected to a certain extent under policy pressure in recent years, but with the company's strong marketing public relations and academic promotion ability, with the gradual enrichment of the product line, the future performance is also expected to maintain stable growth, we cover the company for the first time, giving "holding" rating.
Risk tips: core varieties bidding price reduction, medical insurance control fee range more than expected; traditional Chinese medicine injection policy pressure increased; the price of Chinese herbal medicine increased; the progress of new product listing and promotion is not as expected.