Main points of investment
Event: recently, we investigated Shanghai Fudan Zhangjiang Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which was founded in 1996 and is a biomedical innovation enterprise with R & D as the core.
Ella: exclusive products with steady growth in sales. Ella is one of the company's two core products, with sales revenue of about 230 million yuan in 2015, accounting for 40% of the company's product sales revenue. At present, the product has gone through a period of rapid growth and gradually entered a stage of steady growth. Taking into account the new round of bidding and the steady growth in sales, the sales growth of the product is expected to remain at 10% and 20% in 2016-2018.
Ribodo: the growth rate is stable and it is expected to be listed in the United States in the future. Ribodo is another core product of the company, with sales of about 330 million yuan in 2015, accounting for 57% of the company's product sales revenue. Based on a comprehensive analysis of volume and price, it is expected that the growth rate of the product will also maintain 10% and 20% in 2016-2018. In addition, the company is also actively promoting the listing of Reebodo in the United States, which is expected to submit an ANDA application in 2017 and is expected to be approved in early 2019.
Fumeda: good news for patients with port wine stains, a rare disease. Fumeda belongs to 1.1 new drugs, which is expected to be put on the market early next year. It is mainly used to treat port wine stains and has considerable market space. As the product adopts DTP marketing model, it is expected to maintain a high growth rate after listing, and it is likely to become the company's third core product, which is expected to contribute more than 200 million yuan to the company's operating income.
R & D is the core competitiveness of the company. As an innovative pharmaceutical company, the company invests heavily in R & D, and R & D expenses account for about 20% of the company's operating income. The company's main research and development platforms include genetic engineering drugs, photodynamic drugs and nano-drugs. At present, the company is the only company that has made achievements in the field of photodynamic therapy, and it is also one of the most powerful photodynamic therapy drug research and development institutions in the world. In terms of research and development of products, the fastest-moving products are currently in clinical phase II and are expected to be on the market after 2020. As a result, the company will have no new products on the market in the short term.
Profit forecast. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2016 to 2018 will be 667 million yuan, net profit will be 1.498 million yuan, and EPS will be 0.16,0.19,0.24 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 35.2,29.4 and 24.0 times of PE. Considering the company's good product line echelon and R & D capability, we believe that the company has broad prospects for medium-and long-term growth. For the first time, it covers the rating of "overweight".
Risk hint: Fumei's sales are not as expected; the growth rate of existing products is declining.
