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华录百纳(300291):三大板块齐头并进 泛娱乐平台战略稳步推进

海通證券 ·  Dec 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Film, television, variety, and sports continue to gain strength, and fourth quarter results can be expected. The company achieved revenue of 1.87 billion yuan (+27.46%) and net profit to mother of 180 million yuan (-6.50%) in the first three quarters. Some of the quality projects developed by the company's film, television, and variety sectors did not meet the requirements for confirmation in the third quarter, and profits declined in the third quarter. According to the company's three-quarter report, high-quality works such as “My New Clothes” and “Midnight Diner” are likely to confirm revenue in the fourth quarter, and the results will usher in a period of concentrated release. High-quality film and television projects are well stocked, and the process of networking and rejuvenation is accelerating. The company's film and television sector is strong and rich in industry resources. In terms of talent, it has six directors including Wang Jun, and has abundant IP project reserves. TV dramas that have confirmed revenue in '16 include “City of Wrestling,” “Long Live Love,” “Crouching Tiger,” “Gone in the Wind,” and “The Hunter”. The boutique IP drama “Midnight Diner”, directed by Cai Yuexun and led by Huang Lei, was well distributed, setting a price record for a single episode of the company's TV series, which will be broadcast on Zhejiang and Beijing TV in '17. The number of projects planned to be produced in the future has reached 13. Among them, high-quality projects such as “The Legend of Liji” and “The Legend of Liji” are expected to become blockbusters. Judging from the company's work, the film and television sector's networking and rejuvenation strategy has been fully advanced, and it is expected that it will break out of last year's low with a trend of accumulation and weak development and return to the leading position in the TV drama industry. The popularity of variety shows continues to ferment, and the leading position in variety shows has emerged. The company's variety business innovation ability and program development and operation ability are industry-leading, and the variety performance is outstanding. In 2016, the company focused on launching variety shows such as “Whirlwind Takako” (first season), “Crossover Song” (formerly “The Most Beautiful Harmony”), “My New Clothes” (formerly “The Goddess's New Clothes”), and “Come, Say, Do” (schedule postponed), and achieved a double harvest of word of mouth and ratings. In 2017, the company plans to have 7 major projects spanning four quarters of the year of 2017, and enter online variety shows to launch two top online shows. At the same time, outstanding production companies within the United Nations will promote a total of three CCTV variety shows. In the future, the company will use its accumulated experience and business resources in the variety industry based on this layout, and is expected to achieve explosive development in the variety industry. The scale of the sports sector is growing rapidly, and there is huge room for imagination in the future. The company entered the sports industry in June 2015, and its revenue scale has grown by leaps and bounds. The company's sports sector had revenue of 231 million yuan in the first three quarters, which greatly exceeded last year's annual revenue of 58 million yuan, and is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's net profit for 2016/2017 to be 448 million yuan and 602 million yuan; the corresponding EPS is 0.63 yuan and 0.85 yuan, respectively. Referring to the valuation levels of the content industry and marketing industry, the company was given slightly higher than the industry average of 43 times PE in 16 years, and the target price was 27 yuan. Given the company's recent sharp pullback, the stock price was at an all-time low, and the fourth quarter performance was positive, and the rating was raised to “buy.” Risk warning. The development of the film and television business falls short of expectations, and policy risks.

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