Summary of the report:
Based on the bank IT construction, take advantage of the cloud migration trend to develop rapidly.
The company has been committed to banking IT information construction for many years, has a series of business such as system integration, software solutions and IT operation and maintenance, and has long-term cooperative relations with a number of large and medium-sized commercial banks. At present, the banking IT industry as a whole shows the trend of hardware to software and operation and maintenance, and the 13th five-year Plan for the cloud migration of the banking system will bring more development opportunities for the bank IT service providers represented by the company.
Short-term hardware will still develop steadily, data center construction is the key due to the development of cloud computing and other technologies, bank expenditure on IT hardware will show a downward trend in the long run, while in the short term, the data center that supports the bank cloud computing architecture will still be the focus of its hardware investment. The company has a complete IT infrastructure construction business system, and its data center construction solutions include network integration, computing integration and disaster recovery backup, which can meet the various needs of banks for cloud computing data centers.
The update of application system is a trend. Under the influence of Internet finance, big data analysis and other new technologies, there is a huge room for updating the banking software system of new projects, and the compound growth rate of application system software will be more than 15% in the next five years. The company has software solutions for all kinds of systems such as banking, channel and management, and plans to spend half of the funds raised on the update and development of software products to meet the requirements of banks for software systems under the new situation.
IT operation and maintenance has the most development potential, and the wide application of cloud computing in banking business in the era of cloud computing provides a higher growth space for IT operation and maintenance. According to the forecast of IDC, the investment of bank IT operation and maintenance will reach 57.9 billion by 2020, with a compound growth rate of 13% in five years. At present, the company shifts its business focus from hardware to software and IT operation and maintenance, and the gross profit margin is expected to be effectively improved in the future. In addition, the company plans to invest more than 90 million in the construction of IT operation and maintenance service system, which will improve the company's IT operation and maintenance business and effectively enhance market competitiveness.
Profit forecast and investment advice
Cover for the first time, giving a "cautious recommendation" rating. It is estimated that the EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.57,0.77 and 1.07 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 95 times, 70 times and 50 times, respectively. The company will be given 95 times PE in the next 6 months, and the reasonable valuation in the next 6 months will be 69 PE 73 yuan.
Risk hint
1) the cloud migration of banks is not up to expectations; 2) the competition in the industry is too fierce; 3) the business adjustment is not up to expectations.