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新力金融(600318)深度研究:扎根农村金融 支付撬动蓝海

華創證券 ·  Dec 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key takeaways 1. The pure target of A-share finance, traditional companies with stable business profits have complete financial licenses and are unique among A-share listed companies. The five major business lines of leasing, microfinance, guarantee, pawn, and P2P achieved net profit of 76 million yuan, 19 million yuan, 25 million yuan, 16 million yuan, and 0.2 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2016, and operated steadily. 2. Short-term drive: The acquisition of Haike Rongtong and entered third-party payments, and the scale of the billing business grew rapidly. Haike Rongtong has the qualifications to operate bank card billing business nationwide. Account expansion resumed in April 2015. The number of merchants increased from 816,600 at the end of 2015 to 2.106 million at the end of July 2016. The average daily transaction volume of bank transactions increased from 297 million yuan in 2015 to 1,354 billion yuan in January-July 2016, showing strong business resilience and good growth potential. This transaction can inject strong impetus into the performance growth, customer drainage and risk control of listed companies, while demonstrating business confidence and safeguarding the interests of shareholders of listed companies through performance promises. It is estimated that the three major fund-raising projects: the Shandong Logistics Finance Platform, the Hebei Cun Village Connect Project, and the China Resources MIS Project can each bring them 188 million yuan, 160 million yuan, and 144 million yuan in billing business revenue, and can also achieve customer sharing and business collaboration with Xinli Finance in various fields. The project itself has a short payback period and is very marketable. 3. Relying on the country's leading supply and marketing system in Anhui Province, opening up space for the future development of rural finance, the total sales volume of the Anhui Provincial Supply and Marketing Agency in 2015 was more than 242 billion yuan, an increase of 22.79% over the previous year. It continued to grow at a high rate, and its performance was higher than that of the national system. There are 6,3629 business outlets, an increase of 3,398 over 2014, covering 85% of the townships and 60% of rural areas in Anhui. With continued policy contributions and strong support from the parent company, the company's financial service space is broad, and performance is expected to continue to be unleashed. 4. Investment advice: Based on the above analysis, the company is expected to achieve steady growth in the short, medium and long term. EPS for 2016/2017/2018 is expected to be 0.58/0.80/1.06, respectively, and the corresponding latest PE is 49.0/36.8/26.8, respectively. Considering the completion of the restructuring, Haike Rongtong's receipt business and the three major fund-raising projects will continue to provide strong impetus for the company's future performance growth. The EPS for 2016/2017/2018 is expected to be 0.35/1.09/1.47, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 81.4/26.1/19.4 respectively. Based on the estimated EPS of 1.09 yuan/share in 2017, the target price is between 36 yuan and 39 yuan. The company's stock price recently pulled back to 28.49 yuan, showing investment opportunities , covered for the first time, and gave a recommended rating. Risk factors: The restructuring process fell short of expectations

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