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鸿博股份(002229)深度研究:打通彩票全产业链 静候行业风云再起

國金證券 ·  Jan 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Invest in logical lottery printing leaders to open up the entire lottery industry chain. The company is a leading company in the printing of pre-prepared notes and instant invoicing for sports, Fucai, and instant invoicing. It was the first A-share listed company to lay out lottery games, system development, and paperless sales of lottery tickets. The company established a development strategy of “based on lottery ticket printing, increasing investment in lottery research and development, focusing on the promotion and platform construction of paperless lottery tickets, and seizing the opportunities brought by the development of mobile Internet to paperless lottery tickets”. It has been more than two years since the lottery industry was overhauled, and positive signs are gradually showing. The rectification of the lottery industry, which began in November 2014 and carried out a special audit of lottery funds by the National Audit Office, has continued for more than two years. At present, the special audit has been completed. Beginning in the second half of 2016, positive signals gradually began to appear: 1) China Sports Lottery tendered for telephone and internet lottery marketing strategy projects; 2) China Sports Lottery tendered for “new game security tests for the Internet system, third party compliance security tests for sports lottery mobile application clients”; 3) China Sports Lottery tendered for the “WeChat Sports Lottery Development Project”. Among them, the latter two projects were completed in the first quarter of 2017. We judge that the end of the two national conferences to the second quarter may become an important time window for restarting paperless lottery ticket sales. The printing of prefabricated lottery tickets definitely took the lead, that is, invoicing printing followed. The company is also a finalist and the only supplier of Fucai's prefabricated note printing and supply system. According to the combined calculation of sports and lottery, the company's winning bid amount and market share in the provinces covered were 31.6% and 26.6%, respectively, ranking first. In 2015, the company took control of Sports Lottery, the only social printing company that issues invoices, through acquisitions. The joint venture, Kecai Global, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of global gaming giant Meicai Technology. The joint efforts of Qiangqiang will not only focus on China's instant invoicing printing business, but may also leave room for cooperation in other lottery-related products and services. A-shares were the first to lay out lottery systems and game research and development, and many important advances have been made. 1) In February 2015, the company won the bid for the first provincial sports lottery mobile lottery bidding project in the country — the “Fujian Sports Lottery Game and Game Platform Builder” project, and also obtained the qualification of a telephone sales distributor for sports lottery in Fujian Province. 2) In November 2016, the company's 6 games won the Excellence Award in the 3rd China Welfare Lottery Instant Lottery Game Product Collection Campaign. They were included in the China Lottery Center game library and submitted for distribution at the opportunity. A-shares first engaged in paperless lottery sales, ranking high in business scale. In 2010, the company held the “Cailele” website and became the first A-share listed company to set up online lottery sales; in the same year, the company also set up holding subsidiaries Hongbo Zhiyuan and Hongbo Digital Network to engage in telephone lottery ticket sales, electronic lottery research and development, and “offline ticketing” 2B business, respectively. In 2014, the company's 2C business revenue was about 800 million yuan, and 2B business revenue was close to 3 billion yuan. The size of 2C's business is roughly in the top 15 of all websites and the top 10 professional vertical websites. The valuation and investment advice company is a leading lottery printing company. It has the earliest and most successful layout in upstream lottery systems and games, and has considerable experience in downstream paperless lottery sales. It is the listed company with the most complete layout in the A-share lottery industry chain. The company's performance in recent years has been mainly hampered by the diversified printing business of the non-public publishing bureau in 2011, but with factors such as the warming liquor market leading to a recovery in the wine label printing business, the company may experience a reversal in performance in the next few years. We focus on the progress of the rectification of the lottery industry, and believe that the second quarter of 2017 will be an important time window for restarting paperless lottery ticket sales. We are optimistic about the industry resources that the company has accumulated over a long period of time in the lottery industry and its long-term positive development potential in the future. We forecast that the company's 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.01/0.04/0.12 yuan/share (three-year CAGR of 55.9%), giving it an “increase in holdings” rating for the first time. Prices of risky raw materials and labor costs have risen; lottery ticket sales have declined; and there is uncertainty about the qualification and acquisition of lottery system and game R&D and consignment marketing qualifications.

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