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新力金融(600318)深度报告:依托供销社背景 支付、金控协同发展

招商證券 ·  Dec 22, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  We expect the company's net profit for 2016-2018 to be 1.8/46/550 million, respectively, corresponding to 25x17PE/2.3x17PB after issuing shares. Haike Rongtong's license renewal has been completed, and the acquisition and fixed increase are expected to meet early next year. Stock price catalysis is imminent. Currently, the stock price is 10% lower than the November shareholders' holding price, maintaining a “Highly Recommended - A” rating. Relying on the background of the Anhui Supply and Marketing Association, we have created a financial control platform characteristic of Sannong. Xinli Financial's financial holding business revolves around the existing supply and marketing agency system, pioneering the financial model of acquaintance finance and solving the problem of asymmetric credit information between commercial society and rural acquaintance society. Unlike social microfinance, P2P, and pawnbroker companies that only provide capital loans, the company relies on the real economy's industrial chain to create a closed loop, and the risk is relatively small. According to profit commitments, net profit attributable to listed companies from the Financial Holdings section was 184 million and 213 million, respectively, in 2016 to 2017. Haike Finance is ranked high, and the synergy between supply and marketing agencies, financial control, and payment is strong. Haike Rongtong's layout is mainly in second- and third-tier cities. Similar 2B customers such as small and micro commercial merchants account for the vast majority, competing with the 2C customer layout of giants such as Alipay and Tenpay. In addition to non-market-based and non-genuine third-party payment companies such as UnionPay, Alipay, and Fortune Connect, Haike Rongtong is in the top three. The average monthly transaction volume has risen from 40 billion in January-July this year to around 60 billion now, and the transaction volume for the whole of next year will exceed 1 trillion dollars. In addition to Haike Rongtong's own expansion, supply and marketing agencies, financial control, and payment can form a synergy effect: on the one hand, the introduction of transaction flow by Anhui Supply and Marketing Cooperative can contribute about 500 billion dollars in transaction growth, and the full implementation is expected to take 1-2 years; on the other hand, Xinli Financial's original microfinance, P2P and other businesses can be seamlessly connected with payments to jointly develop POS lending businesses, with potential profit margin of more than 100 million yuan. The prospects for the three fixed increase investment projects are very promising, and the resources cannot be replicated. 1) Shandong logistics project: Shandong is a major logistics province. Under the influence of north and south, it is in a key position in transportation. Logistics is generally cash on delivery. Currently, Haike Rongtong is still done using some traditional methods. Haike Rongtong cooperates with the local government to embed the billing and settlement system, which will greatly share the logistics market in Shandong; 2) China Resources MIS Project: Cooperate with China Resources Wanjia to optimize POS channels to provide other comprehensive supporting services such as centralized cashier, billing, and value-added income; 3) Hebei “Village Connect” project: Currently, Haike Rongtong has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hebei Bangnong, mainly for more than 14,000 rural businesses covered by the Hebei “Village Village Connect” project Supermarkets and agricultural websites POS terminal installation, platform operation and maintenance, convenient payment, agricultural aid withdrawal, POS loan services, etc. Risk warning: The increase in acquisitions and orders fell short of expectations.

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