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新力金融(600318)深度研究:拟收购海科融通 打造支付与类金融生态体系

中泰證券 ·  Jan 2, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The main points of investment were written earlier: As the company divests cement assets and transforms financial services such as small loans, and plans to acquire the third-party payment company Haike Rongtong, the core recommendation logic of Xinli Finance is to create a financial ecosystem that collaborates with payment and financial services through a “payment” portal in the future, providing traffic and data, and financial services that provide traffic and data, and financial services have innate advantages in business development and risk control under the supply and marketing agency system. The company has long-term growth potential. It is proposed to acquire Haike Rongtong, and third-party payment licenses are scarce and open up space for collaboration with similar financial services. As an entry point for financial services, payments are a source of traffic and data acquisition. We believe that while enjoying the growth and performance contributions of the third-party payment industry, the company's proposed acquisition of Haike Rongtong will also form significant collaboration with existing types of financial services. The comprehensive billing rate of Haike Rongtong increased from 0.116% in 2015 to 0.155% from January to July 2016. After the implementation of the “bank card credit card processing fee pricing” reform on September 6, 2016, Haike Rongtong's comprehensive billing rate remained at the level of 0.14% due to its first-mover advantage in the offline billing market and relatively strong industry bargaining power. Haike Rongtong maintained a high growth rate in terms of transaction volume, average daily transaction volume, bank flow, and number of merchants covered. From January to July 2016, the transaction volume, average daily transaction volume, bank flow, and number of merchants covered reached 288.378 billion yuan, 1,354 billion yuan and 2.106 million households respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 165.95%, 335.74% and 157.89% respectively. Financial services (leasing, microfinance, pawnbroking, P2P, guarantees) have advantages in business development and risk control management through the business ecosystem formed by Anhui Supply and Marketing Cooperatives. The financial business achieved net profit of 226 million yuan and 139 million yuan in 2015 and the first half of 2016, respectively, and the ROE stabilized at around 11%. We expect the corporate financial business to exceed the performance promises of the majority shareholder Xinli Investment. The net profit of the company's 2016-2018 financial business is estimated to be 2.8, 320, and 4.2 billion yuan respectively. We believe that financial business, as an important support and supplement to financing channels for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, merchants, farmers, etc. under the supply and marketing system, is a performance guarantee for the company's long-term growth. Investment advice: We are optimistic about the financial ecosystem created by the company that collaborates with payment and financial services. With payments providing traffic and data, and the innate advantages of financial services in terms of business development and risk control under the supply and marketing agency system, we continue to open up market capitalization space under long-term growth. Since there is still uncertainty about the company's proposed acquisition of Haike Rongtong, we have divided our discussions into two categories of situations in terms of profit forecasting and valuation. Regardless of Haike Rong's financial statements, the company's performance will be entirely contributed by financial services. The company's net profit for 2016-2018 is estimated to be 1.88, 2.35, and 325 million yuan, and diluted earnings per share of 0.78, 0.97, and 1.34 yuan. Considering the merger of Haike Finance, it is reasonable to assume that Haike Finance was consolidated in July 2017: Under the reasonable assumption that Haike Rong achieved merger in July 2017, the company's performance will be contributed by financial services and third-party payment services. The company's net profit for 2016-2018 is expected to be 1.88, 3.27, and 618 million yuan, and diluted earnings per share of 0.78, 0.82, and 1.56 yuan. Based on this scenario, we gave the company a target market value of 16.444 billion yuan, corresponding to a share capital of 396 million shares after issuance, and a target price of 41.5 million yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: The development of financial services falls short of expectations; the proposed acquisition of Haike Finance is uncertain.

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