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金盾股份(300411):业绩平稳增长 外延发展值得期待

興業證券 ·  Jan 19, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment Key Company released its 2016 annual performance forecast. It is expected that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2016 will increase by 0 to 10% compared with the same period last year, with a profit of 42.9094 million yuan to 47.2003 million yuan. The reason for the increase in performance: The company's main business increased by about 2.5% compared to the same period last year. The company's performance grew steadily in 2016, and the company's net profit growth rate is expected to achieve a greater breakthrough in 2017. The company specializes in the R&D, production and sales of ventilation system equipment and ventilation systems such as fans, mufflers, air valves, etc. The company continues to maintain its leading edge in the domestic market in the subways and tunnels, ranking first in market share. We expect that from 2017 to 2020, the company will fully benefit from the rapid development of the subway during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, and the company's net profit margin is expected to achieve a greater breakthrough in 2017. It is expected that in 2017, the company will successfully complete the acquisition of Hongxiang Technology and Zhongqiang Technology to achieve civil-military integration. In mid-October 2016, the company announced that it plans to acquire 100% of the shares of Hongxiang Technology and Zhongqiang Technology at 1.16 billion yuan and 1.05 billion yuan respectively, and plans to raise 1,016.6 billion yuan in supporting capital. The company's former top five shareholders subscribed for a total share of 90% of the supporting capital; of this, Zhou Jiancan, the company's controlling shareholder and actual controller, subscribed for 616.6 million yuan, accounting for 60%; fully demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term development. We expect the company to successfully complete the acquisition in 2017, and the three major technological product advantages — ventilation technology, infrared thermal cameras, camouflage paint, and camouflage barriers — will help achieve better civil-military integration... Valuation and ratings: We estimate that the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 will be 45 million yuan, 68 million yuan, and 95 million yuan, respectively, and EPS will be 0.28 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.59 yuan respectively. Considering that the company is one of the leading enterprises in the fields of subways, tunnels and nuclear power fans and ventilation systems in China, its performance is growing steadily year by year. In particular, in 2017, it is expected that the company will achieve a two-way breakthrough in industrial integration and performance growth, and maintain its “increased holding” rating. Risk warning: The merger and acquisition process fell short of expectations; the growth rate of subway construction fell short of expectations.

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