I. Overview of events
The production and sales of Dongan headquarters in December were 22707 and 28784 respectively, an increase of 24.5% and 51.37% over the same period last year, while the cumulative production and sales of the whole year were 3111828 and 309800 respectively, an increase of 91.48% and 101.32% respectively over the same period last year. The production and sales of Dongan Mitsubishi were 33748 and 36286 respectively, up-9.03% and 9.47% respectively over the same period last year. The total production and sales for the whole year were 445159 and 452666 units, up 24.27% and 28.85% respectively over the same period last year.
22. Analysis and judgment
Analysis of production and sales data in December: production and sales of Dongan headquarters increased significantly in December and the whole year, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth of Changan Auchan and Beiqi Weiwang models at the end of 2015 and early 2016; Dongan Mitsubishi has been in full production.
Dongan engine production and sales are expected to remain at full production in 2017, and 6AT will become a new growth point:
Dongan headquarters income Changan Auchan, BAIC Weiwang, engine business has entered a strong growth cycle. Dongan Power headquarters has two series of M and F engines, with a planned production capacity of 350000 vehicles. Supporting Changan Auchan, BAIC Weiwang rapid growth drive company performance, the life cycle of these two models is expected to have 2-3 years, ensuring the stability of Dongan sales.
Dongan Mitsubishi is the core supplier of Changan, and the contribution of investment income is growing steadily. Changan Mitsubishi now has two main series in production, 4G1 and D series, of which D series engines are contract manufacturers for Changan. 4G1 mainly matches CS35 and CX70, and has a capacity of 150,000. D series engines, mainly match CS75 models, match CS95 in the future. The planned production capacity is 450000 units, and the current production capacity is basically saturated.
Dongan Mitsubishi developed the 6AT gearbox to match on Zhongtai first, it will be listed in 2017, and the future revenue is expected. At present, the consumption of domestic passenger cars is upgraded, automatic gearbox is the trend, now independent brands have increased the investment of automatic gearbox, if Dongan Mitsubishi 6AT is listed successfully, the future market space is huge.
Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions
Driven by Changan vehicle business, the company's performance has entered a strong growth cycle, the performance of this part has reversed, and the investment income has increased steadily. 6AT gearbox is a potential growth point. We estimate that the EPS from 2016 to 2018 is 0.29,0.49,0.61 respectively, and the corresponding PE is 40,24,19 times. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating.
IV. Risk hints
Sales of matching models declined; 6AT market development was not as expected; parts prices were reduced.