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兴业太阳能(750.HK)年报前瞻

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jan 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Due to the company's rich project reserves, we expect Societe Generale Solar to complete about 230MW of EPC projects in the second half of 2016. Revenue is expected to reach 5.99 billion yuan and net profit to reach 475 million yuan in 2016. We maintain our previous EPS forecasts: $0.61 in 2016 (up 35.6% year on year), $0.66 in 2017 (up 8.2% year on year), and $0.73 in 2018 (up 10.6% year on year). Based on cautious expectations for the photovoltaic industry, we lowered our target price to HK$4.3. The current price has room to rise 16% from the target price, so we maintain our bullish rating. The EPC business is growing steadily. We expect Societe Generale Solar to complete 400MW of EPC business throughout the year. Due to abundant project reserves, the EPC business in the second half of 2016 was only affected by the rush in the first half of 2016, and is expected to reach 230MW. In November 2016, the company added a 53MW photovoltaic poverty alleviation project and a 60MW distributed project, which is expected to be completed by the end of June 2017. Due to favorable distributed PV policies, feed-in tariffs have not been lowered in the second round. We expect to complete the 450MW EPC project in 2017. Expanding overseas business. Societe Generale Solar further expands overseas business. The Macau façade project increased the company's overseas business revenue by 182% year-on-year in the first half of 2016. Furthermore, in December 2016, the company won the bid for a 100MW EPC project in Uzbekistan while actively developing microgrid projects in Africa. We believe the “Belt and Road” policy will encourage the company to further expand overseas projects. Maintain an increase in holdings. We maintain our previous EPS forecasts: $0.61 in 2016 (up 35.6% year on year), $0.66 in 2017 (up 8.2% year on year), and $0.73 in 2018 (up 10.6% year on year). Based on cautious expectations for the photovoltaic industry, we lowered our target price to HK$4.3, representing 5.26 times 16-year PE and 0.63 times 16-year PB, 4.82 times 17-year PE, and 0.56 times 17-year PB. The current price has room to rise 16% from the target price, so we maintain our bullish rating.

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