Key investment points Butyrithiobuvir and thiobisidazole are expected to revitalize stocks: The company is the largest manufacturer of carbamate pesticides in China. The key intermediates are self-supporting, and the market share of the main products is very high. Market share declined due to the high toxicity of major varieties. With the successful development of butadiazepam and thiodicarovir, the decline in carbamate pesticides has initially been brought under control, and the stock business is expected to revive. It spent 840 million yuan to create heterocyclic pesticides and environmentally friendly pesticides. Hunan Hailey's current revenue is around 1.1 to 1.2 billion yuan. If all of the 840 million yuan investment is achieved, the estimated revenue is about 1.2 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan, which is basically 1 times the current volume. Most of the varieties to be developed are large-tonnage original drug types. The company intends to replicate the production experience of carbamate pesticides and emphasize the self-support of key intermediates. The variety ranges from pesticides to pesticides and biocides with equal emphasis on serialization and stratification of products, even for pesticides. The company has abundant reserves of phosgene derivatives and is capable of releasing them. The company's current total production capacity of phosgene is close to 50,000 tons, and production capacity redundancy is quite large. The phosphogas derivatives to be developed at the Changde base, such as isophthalyl chloride, allyl diethylene glycol bicarbonate, polycarbonates, and amino acid protectants, are all strategically significant new material intermediates, and their industrialization process is worth paying attention to. Once the increase is fixed, the market can look higher in the future. On April 27, '17, the company's non-public offering of shares passed the review by the Development and Review Committee. The project plans to raise 462 million yuan to develop heterocyclic pesticides and their intermediates, environmentally friendly pesticides, etc., of which the employee shareholding plan is 7.53 yuan/share, with a total subscription amount of 49.9999 million yuan. The subscribers include directors **** Weidong, Huang Mingzhi, **** Zhengan, and Jiang Zhuoliang, supervisors Gong ****, Zuo Qiaoli, and Ding Min, as well as company executives and other key business employees. The investment proposal estimates that the company's net profit for 17-19 will be 0.53, 1.57, and 264 million yuan, EPS (considering fixed increase implementation) of 0.14, 0.40, and 0.68 yuan, and PE of 61X, 20X, and 12X. The first coverage gives a “buy” rating, with a target price of 10.00 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 18 years. Risk warning: Demand for pesticides fluctuates from year to year. The Zhuzhou and Guixi bases are not within the chemical park, and development is uncertain.
湖南海利(600731)深度研究:定增过会 发展空间打开
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