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国脉科技(002093)简评:定增顺利完成 物联网综合服务商启航

中信建投 ·  Jan 5, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Recently, Beixinyuan (300352.SZ) issued a fixed increase in the unlimited sales period. Four fund institutions invested 1,262 million yuan to participate in the fixed increase. The issue price is 18.98 yuan/share. The fixed increase can be distributed on the day the fixed increase is listed. Three trading days after listing, Beixinyuan announced a “10 to 20” high transfer plan, and the stock price bucked the trend and rose sharply. If the 4 funds did not sell immediately on the day of listing, 5 trading days after listing, they had already surged 26%. What is even more suspicious is that before the increase in issuance, Beixinyuan's capital reserve fund was less than 3 cents per share. This time, the fixed capital raised “just” was used to transfer the increase, and the financial game was highly suspected. Is this an example of Beixinyuan or is it a “dividend” with an indefinite increase in GEM sales period. Can secondary market investors enjoy this kind of “dividend”? We have studied this and sorted out the trading opportunities in it: Trading Strategy ①: If it is determined that the fixed increase is an indefinite increase in sales period, it is advisable to buy immediately after the announcement and hold it for about 10 trading days. If the company directly intervenes at the opening of the market after announcing a fixed price increase, a basket of stock prices rises steadily and is relatively stable after T+10. The cumulative excess yield is between 8% and 10%, the win rate can remain at around 60%, and the T+10 day win rate can reach a high value of 68%. Trading Strategy ②: Among project financing and ancillary financing companies, companies that implement project financing can be selected in a targeted manner. According to the purpose of additional issuance, there are two main types of indefinite stock sales issued by GEM listed companies: project financing and supporting financing. We compared the yield and win rate of these two types of financing based on the fixed price increase announcement date. Project financing is clearly superior to supporting financing. In terms of yield, project finance companies achieved a yield of 10% to 15% after 15 trading days, and remained stable for the next 30 or so trading days. Yield rose again after 45 trading days, and reached an average yield of 32.4% after the 60th trading day. Trading Strategy ③: If investors can determine an unlimited sales period on the pricing benchmark date, they should buy at the opening of the first trading day after the pricing benchmark date and sell between the 15th and 18th trading days. After the pricing benchmark date (T day), the stock price rose almost steadily. Compared with the GEM index, the cumulative excess income reached its highest point on T+24 (14.1%). Among them, the period between T+1 and T+18 was the most obvious stage of excess earnings. Judging from the win rate, no matter what point in time you quit, the probability of this strategy getting excess profit remains stable at over 65%. On January 4 of the incident, the company issued an announcement. The fixed increase was successfully completed. It issued 123 million shares on a non-public offering to 7 institutions, including Guomai Group, a subsidiary of the actual controller Chen Guoying's family, raising a total capital of 1.44 billion yuan at an issue price of 11.74 yuan/share. A brief review of the premium offering highlights investors' confidence in the company's development. The target issuers include Guomai Group, Beixin Ruifeng, Zhongbang Asset, Agricultural Bank Investment, Anxin Fund, and Huafu Securities. The subscription period for the rest of the institutions is 150 million yuan, which is owned by the actual controller Chen Guoying's family, and the remaining institutions are locked down for 3 years. The fixed increase price of 11.74 yuan/share is the issue reserve price. It is 105.01% of the company's closing price of 11.18 yuan/share on the trading day before the subscription price. The premium issue highlights investors' confidence in the future development of the company. Fund-raising projects helped upgrade the company to an ICT integrated service provider as a communications industry service provider. It has focused on communication technology (CT) services for nearly ten years before and after listing, and has a complete telecom service industry chain. Its core business covers telecommunication network technology services (design consulting, network operation and maintenance, business process outsourcing, human resources outsourcing), system integration, education and training. It has Class A qualifications in communications industry survey and design, high-end professional operation and maintenance service capabilities, and advanced national undergraduate education and training qualifications, and has built Juniper, Teradata, Full service base for international equipment vendors such as Packet Design in China. With the increasing integration of the CT and IT industries, the company's business extends to IT, providing customers in the telecommunications, government, medical care, education and other industries with complete “product+service” ICT solutions, and becoming a comprehensive information and communication technology (ICT) solution provider. The company raised a total of 1.44 billion yuan, of which 800 million yuan was invested in the IoT big data operation platform, 500 million yuan was invested in the Cloud Health Medical Center, and 140 million yuan was used to supplement working capital. In the context of the ICT industry trend and context of the accelerated expansion of the Internet of Things to industry applications and public applications, the IoT big data operation platform and Guomai Cloud Health and Medical Center project implementation will help the company achieve a “Internet of Things+Big Data” platform operation as the core, “ICT+ key vertical industry applications (key application fields such as intelligent transportation, energy management, environmental monitoring, smart city construction, etc.)” as the entry point, and “online platform+offline entity” to form a closed-loop service system, driving the company to become a leading IoT integrated service provider, helping the company to provide professional ICT integrated services Business is transforming into a comprehensive service provider based on the diversification of the ICT industry. Build a big data platform for the Internet of Things and move towards the Internet of Vehicles TSP. The Internet of Things is known as the next trillion-yuan emerging industry in the world. It has been listed as one of the country's top five emerging strategic industries. It is also a core application of 5G, with huge market potential. According to Gartner data, the total number of global IoT devices will reach 6.4 billion in 2016, an increase of 30% over the previous year, and is expected to grow to 20.8 billion by 2020. The company has made every effort to develop the IoT big data operation platform. It has the following advantages: 1) The company has a cloud platform with independent intellectual property rights, massive storage and big data solutions, has independent intellectual property rights and platform construction and operation experience in cloud computing, big data, and the Internet of Things, and has been used in transportation, health care, government, public security, telecommunications, education and other industries, and has the first-mover advantage of becoming a comprehensive IoT service provider; 2) The Fujian Provincial Government strongly encourages and supports the operation and development of the company's IoT platform. It clearly regards the Internet of Things as a key part of development, and will focus on capital, financing services, and infrastructure construction Support is provided in areas such as sharing public information resources, and purchasing government information services. 3) The Internet of Vehicles is an important branch of the Internet of Things and has the advantage of hardware entry. Huihan Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of Guomai Group (listed on the new third board, code: 832245), the core product, the vehicle network control system (TCU/T-BOX), can support a variety of connected car services and applications. It has entered domestic automobile manufacturers including SAIC Passenger Car, Shanghai Volkswagen, SAIC Chase, Chery, JAC, BAIC, Beijing Futian, etc., and has a rich collection of vehicle front-loading dynamic data (location, attitude, CAN bus core vehicle data). The company has a huge advantage in the key big data acquisition process of the Internet of Vehicles, and is expected to become an Internet of Vehicle Service Operator (TSP) in the future. Internet of Vehicle Data Monetization: UBI Insurance and Used Car Transaction Information Service Huihan Technology leads the market share of front-loading TBOX and will increase rear-end market development in the future. The company's IoT big data platform may be able to obtain the most complete data puzzle for the Internet of Vehicles through data exchange between front/rear equipment and different car manufacturers. In the future, it is expected to be monetized through UBI insurance and used car transaction information services. 1) The auto insurance market space is huge, and the UBI penetration rate continues to grow. Compared with traditional car insurance, UBI auto insurance can: (1) reduce the frequency of insurance companies' claims, reduce insurance fraud, and increase profit levels; (2) improve the scientific and fair nature of pricing, and obtain differentiated rates for different car owners; and (3) provide data support to effectively monitor traffic conditions. Currently, foreign insurance companies have begun to adopt the UBI model for car insurance, and the domestic market is actively advancing. 2) In 2015, a total of 9.42 million used cars were traded nationwide, with a cumulative transaction volume of 553.5 billion yuan. The volume of used car transactions was only 23% of the volume of new car transactions, accounting for 5.5% of car ownership, far below the level of developed countries. If we calculate the 2:1 ratio of used cars to new car circulation in developed countries, by 2020, China's used car trading volume will reach about 40 million units, with a trillion dollars of market space. Referring to the development situation in the US, it is expected that the US Carfax (used car information service company, which provides vehicle history information records reports, with a revenue scale of 5 billion yuan) will emerge domestically to ensure the trustworthiness, fairness, and transparency of used car transactions, and the company has a first-mover advantage. The education sector has stable output, and the integration of industry, academia and research is strong 1) The company founded Fuzhou Institute of Technology and obtained undergraduate qualifications in 2015 (the tuition fee for undergraduate students is more than 2 times that of the junior college, the academic system is 4 years, and the number of students enrolled continues to grow). In 2016, the number of undergraduate majors increased from 5 to 10. With the cumulative increase in the number of undergraduate students over 4 years, the company will enter a stable output period; 2) The college is a technical support platform for the company's development, closely integrated with the company's telecommunication network technology business and IoT development strategy to provide the company with technical support and technical support for the company, industry, academia, research The integrated model brings good synergy. Profit forecasting and investment suggest that the company's traditional business is growing steadily, real estate projects are being launched and sold, and education has entered a stable output period. At the same time, with Huihan Technology's TBOX, the company is expected to take the lead in becoming the TSP for the Internet of Vehicles and building an Internet of Things+big data industry platform. We forecast that the company's net profit for the 16-18 years will be: 90 million yuan, 200 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 300 million yuan respectively. The company's fixed increase price is 11.74 yuan, and the current stock price is 10.79 yuan. The margin of safety is sufficient, and the “increase in holdings” rating is maintained!

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