Events:
On December 29, Ke Liyuan issued a notice on the approval of the non-public offering of shares by the Development and Review Commission of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company intends to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan through the non-public offering of A shares. Used in Hunan Keba Automotive Power Battery Co., Ltd. annual output of 518 million Ampere-hour vehicle power battery industrialization project (phase I project), Changde Liyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. annual output of 6 million square meters of new energy vehicle foam nickel industrial park project and CHS hybrid powertrain system research and development project.
Main points of investment:
Additional issuance promotes production capacity growth, and the asset-liability ratio is expected to be improved. Hunan Keba, the company's polar sheet and battery package production base, is still in the early stage of operation, has not achieved large-scale mass production, and the gross profit margin of the battery business is low. On the demand side, Japanese Toyota ordered 57400 sets of positive films and 55700 sets of negative films in 2016. It is expected to reach 85000 sets in 2017 and 112800 sets in 2018, which will exceed the existing production capacity of Hunan Keba. This additional offering will greatly increase Hunan Keba's production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity of 216 million ampere-hour batteries and 61 million ampere polar tablets, which can meet the new demand of Japanese Toyota positive and negative film orders and power batteries for hybrid buses and hybrid passenger vehicles, and turn losses into profits through large-scale mass production; in addition, the funds raised by this additional offering will also help to improve the asset-liability ratio and optimize and improve the report structure.
With the strong support of the government, there will be more expectations for the development of hybrid vehicles. According to the Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Technologies released by the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering in November 2016, the overall idea of energy-efficient vehicles focuses on hybrid technology, and the proportion of hybrid vehicle sales will reach 8% in 2020 to 20% in 2025 to 25% in 2030. In addition, strong support from local governments also indicates that China's hybrid vehicles are expected to enter a period of explosive growth. Compared with the pure electric route, the hybrid technology has no mileage anxiety and charging infrastructure restrictions, and has the optimal energy efficiency power of the power system. it is a mature energy-saving new energy vehicle technology at present. We believe that the hybrid route is gradually recognized by the government and is expected to develop in parallel with the pure electric route.
The industrial chain of hybrid platform is gradually complete, and the company has the scarcity of industrial chain. On August 18, 2016, the company announced the relocation of CHS to Foshan in order to take advantage of the resource aggregation effect of the industrial chain in Guangdong, which will help CHS to speed up production and greatly enhance the sustainable development and risk resistance of the CHS project. From the recent release of Geely MR7184HEV, the first independent deep gas-electric hybrid car in China, to Geely TX5, a plug-in hybrid taxi that will be put into production and put into operation in London in 2017, it has been proved that CHS, the hybrid platform of Ke Li Yuan, has deeply participated in the layout of hybrid industry chain. As the most flexible and deep mixed standard in the A stock market, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly with the continuous increase of cooperative manufacturers in the future.
Maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "overweight" rating: the company's strategy continues to fall to the ground, reflecting strong executive power. We are optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company as the purest target in China. We keep the company's profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2016 to 2018 is 12 million, 181 million and 467 million, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.01,0.13,0.34 yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 1000 times, 77 times and 29 times of PE for 16-18 years, respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.