The current situation of the company
The company announced December sales in 16 years: December sales reached 33000 vehicles from a high base, down 2.4% from the same period last year; roadshaker and Yusheng SUV sales exceeded expectations, higher quality sales data, and the company's passenger car strategy has achieved results.
Comment
New Quanshun sales continued to rise, shaking the road monthly sales hit a new high for the year: the company's Quanshun sales in December were 4597, down about 47.7% from a year earlier, which is expected to be mainly due to the suspension of production of Classic Quanshun and the high base impact of the same period in 2015. New Quanshun sales are expected to reach about 3000, compared with about 2000 in November. Road shakers sold 1515 vehicles in December, up about 48 per cent from November, and Ford sales for the year reached 73,000, roughly flat.
Yusheng SUV sales continued to rise, while JMC commercial vehicles weakened month-on-month: Yusheng SUV sales rose by about 1400 per month over the past two months, benefiting from rising S330 sales. In December, Yusheng SUV sales reached 9623, close to the 10,000 level, a year-on-year increase of 3.2 times. For the whole year, the company's Yusheng SUV sales reached 37000 vehicles, an increase of 90.1% over the same period last year. The company's JMC light trucks and pick-up trucks, which were 10659 and 6775 respectively in December, fell only 14.5% and 7.8% year-on-year due to last year's high base.
4Q sales increased sharply and is expected to continue in 2017: under the pressure of industry sales in 2015, the company had high sales in December in 15 years, and the high base was the main reason for the slight decline in sales growth in December 16. In the fourth quarter as a whole, the company's sales reached 95000 vehicles, an increase of 31% over the same period last year, a record growth rate for the year, driving the company's total sales to 281000 vehicles, an increase of 6.95% over the same period last year.
The company's channel reform will break the ice in 2017, which is expected to give a big boost to roadbreakers' sales; while the sales of Yusheng S330 are gradually upward, and the company's overall passenger car sales are expected to exceed 100000 in 2017, which is expected to become the main driver of the company's sales growth; in terms of commercial vehicles, new Quanshun sales continue to advance, in addition to the company's Touruo automatic gear and JMC light passenger listing in 2017, the company's sales are expected to continue to improve significantly.
Valuation proposal
Considering that the company received 250 million yuan in government subsidy at the end of December and the intensification of competition in the independent SUV market in 2017 may lead to a decline in profit pressure in the industry, we adjusted the company's performance forecast for 2016 to 1.67 billion yuan (+ 9.3%) / 2.51 billion yuan (- 10.4%). The company's business and passenger strategy has achieved results. The company's new Quanshun listing is better than expected, maintaining the company's recommended rating and target price of 35 yuan / 25 Hong Kong dollars for the company's Aamp B shares, which corresponds to 12.1x/7.5x2017e Pamp E.
Risk.
Yusheng's sales were lower than expected, while those who shook the road were lower than expected.