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银邦股份(300337):业绩修复预期强 军工新材料蓄势待发

東興證券 ·  Jan 10, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report summary: Benefiting from fund-raising projects, raw aluminum prices and downstream demand, the company's performance increased significantly in 2016: in the first three quarters of 2016, the company's total operating income increased 8.97% year on year, and net profit increased 117.15% year on year. The fund-raising project achieved the company's annual production of 200,000 tons of laminated metal composites, and the cost per ton was reduced by 12% over the same period last year. The increased production capacity of the fund-raising project effectively solved the production capacity bottleneck that had limited the company's development for a long time. It is expected that production will continue to increase in the future as product yield increases and costs decrease. Aluminum materials account for about 80% of the company's production costs. The recovery in aluminum prices since 2016 has contributed to the recovery of the company's performance. The global price of aluminum raw materials has rebounded markedly, increasing the company's profit per product, and greatly reducing the negative impact of the raw material price reduction plan, leading to a rebound in the company's performance. Valeo plans to sign contract orders with the company for a total amount of about 2 billion yuan, accounting for about 28%-31% of the operating income level in 2015 every year. Valeo is the company's top five customers and plans to give the company a contract order with an annual purchase amount of RMB 38-42 million from 2017 to 2021. The company has cooperated extensively with various parties in the fields of armored vehicles, ships and marine equipment, and military vehicles. Currently, it has obtained four military industry licenses, and it is expected that orders for the military industry will be released in the future. The company is expected to supply 3D printer body parts for the J-20 project as soon as possible in the future. The high gross margin of military products will greatly enhance the company's performance. Feierkang is expected to gradually achieve a profit and loss balance. It has medical industry quality system certification, 3D printed titanium alloy parts have passed international airworthiness certification and is being supplied by suppliers, and titanium alloy powder products are expected to be supplied to Airbus and are being certified. Feierkang and COMAC are collaborating on the C919, the second largest passenger aircraft developed independently by China, which is expected to generate 100 million dollars in revenue after mass production. Company profit forecasts and investment ratings. We are optimistic that the company will actively reduce costs and increase efficiency. Gross margin is expected to gradually be restored, and the high-speed rail project is expected to exceed expectations. At the same time, the military industry and 3D printing business, which are being laid out, are expected to gradually supply goods and contribute revenue. We expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.04/0.23/0.35 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 250/45/29 times, respectively, giving the company a “recommended” rating. Risk warning: Fund-raising projects have fallen short of expectations, and the progress of new military materials has fallen short of expectations.

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