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*ST济柴(000617)深度研究:大金控厉兵秣马 全牌照蓄势待发

華泰證券 ·  Jan 12, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  CNPC Financial Holdings was restructured and listed, and all license advantages promoted development*ST Jichai's asset restructuring was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. CNPC's financial asset investment of 75.5 billion yuan was invested, including banks, insurance, securities, trusts, leasing, and finance companies, and supporting financing of 19 billion yuan. The full license advantage helped 100 billion financial holdings take off. Subsidiaries are in full swing, and big financial holdings are ready to go 1) CNPC Finance: industry leader, asset size, revenue and profit have remained number one in the industry for 13 consecutive years; 2) Bank of Kunlun: steady performance development, capital profit margin from January to May 2016 exceeded 15%, non-performing rate 1.79% on May 31, 2016; 3) Kunlun Financial Leasing: scarce licenses, capital increase of 1.1 billion yuan to help development; 4) Shandong Trust+Kunlun Trust: Fast performance growth, strong active management ability; 5) Insurance sector: life+financial insurance + Self-insurance differential management, and the main business of the group Complement each other; 6) Others: The addition of China Bonds is the first professional bond credit promotion agency in China, and the Bank of China International's income structure has balanced performance and stable performance. In the future, the company will have a license for the entire financial industry. Taking advantage of CNPC's resource advantages, the big financial control platform is poised to go. Banking, securities and insurance license feast, listing to create a collaborative ecosystem, and financial control platforms have rich financial resources. They can effectively connect financial and industrial resources. The channels for business cooperation are more diverse, and information resources are shared in a timely manner, greatly reducing the search and negotiation costs generated in transactions between business sectors. Among the many financial licenses, the value of the company's banking, securities, and insurance licenses will gradually become apparent. At the same time, listing helps companies fully connect with the capital market, raise the level of marketization of enterprise operations, use listing platforms to broaden financing channels, consolidate the capital base, build an ecosystem of industry-finance collaboration and integration, and enhance the overall competitiveness of enterprises. Shareholder resources+full license financial control+small actual circulation market. For the first time, the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 is estimated to be 68/70/7.6 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.76/0.77/0.84 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company relies on CNPC to play a synergistic role, the continued profitability of financial assets is guaranteed; the lockdown period for the current restructuring and issuance of shares to purchase assets and raise supporting capital is 3 years. The market value of the company's circulation market is 6.7 billion yuan. Excluding 60% of the shares held by the majority shareholders, the actual market value of the circulation market is only 2.7 billion yuan. The actual circulation market value is small and flexible, making it a popular target for capital. Combining the company's shareholder resources and the small actual circulation market, the company was given a reasonable premium. It is believed that the company's reasonable valuation in 2017 is about 31-33 times PE. It is predicted that the company's net profit in 2017 will be 7 billion yuan, the total share capital after this increase will be 9.03 billion shares, and the target price for 2017 is 24-26 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: Business coordination is not as good as expected, risk of market fluctuations, and failure of transformation.

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