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金安国纪(002636)公司公告点评:业绩弹性得到兑现 看好公司投资价值

海通證券 ·  Jan 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The company significantly increased its 2016 performance range. Jin An Guoji issued a 16-year performance revision announcement, drastically increasing 16-year results, and the profit range rose to 325 million to 352 million (the three-quarter report expects net profit of 233 million to 260 million yuan), an increase of 500% to 550% over the previous year. The logic of performance flexibility has been implemented. The company's net profit for the first three quarters was 148 million yuan. The fourth quarter surpassed the sum of the previous three quarters, and the monthly profit range of 55 million to 65 million yuan indicates that the company's performance is indeed very elastic, in line with our previous expectations. The company's performance elasticity is mainly due to the shortage of CCL supply due to the reduction in upstream label foil supply and the high bargaining power brought about by its unique structure of small to medium customers, which has greatly increased profitability. At the same time, according to the company's three-quarter report, the Q3 company's indicators are clearly improving. The number of days of turnover of accounts receivable hit a new low in 9 years, and the probability of continuing improvement in the fourth quarter is likely to continue. The company also has some leeway in production capacity. The strongest price elasticity combined with the strongest production capacity elasticity is the strongest performance elasticity. We believe that the company's production capacity will naturally increase by 15% to 20% every year, and the suspension of the second phase of the Lin'an production line will provide room for further expansion of production. The CCL boom is expected to continue in 2017. The current boom cycle in the copper foil industry chain is mainly due to the large increase in demand for lithium battery copper foil, which has led to partial conversion of standard copper foil, and the continuous reduction in foil production over the past few years, which has caused both lithium battery and foil prices to rise sharply. The equipment and infrastructure construction cycle requires at least one and a half years, and most of the production capacity that was put into production in 17 years will be released after the third quarter (about 70% or more). It is expected that the boom in the first three quarters of the year will remain high, and CCL prices will continue to rise. Give a buy rating. The company's fourth quarter in a single quarter surpassed the sum of the previous three quarters. We expect real performance elasticity in 2017. Net profit for 16/17/18 is estimated at 338/9.53/956 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 16/17/18, 0.46/1.31/1.31 yuan, and the target price is 28.82 yuan (corresponding to 22 times PE in '17). Risk warning. The popularity of copper-clad plate fell short of expectations.

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