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西藏天路(600326)点评:受益西藏水泥高景气 业绩向上弹性大

海通證券 ·  Feb 9, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The company is a leading cement company in Tibet. Construction and commercial concrete businesses jointly build industrial chain integration. The company's cement production line is located in Tibet. Currently, it has 4 cement clinker production lines through holding and equity participation, with a total clinker production capacity of about 2.48 million tons. In 2015, the company sold more than 3 million tons of cement, accounting for more than 60% of the total cement production in Tibet. In addition to the cement business, the company's construction (highways, water conservancy, railways, construction) and commercial concrete business accounted for about 34% of total revenue in 2015; in 2013-2015, the company's cement business accounted for around 80% of gross profit, which was the company's main source of profit. Supply and demand in Tibet continue to be tight, and the profit level of cement is the highest in the country. Early infrastructure and supporting facilities in the Tibet region are weak, and the growth rate of regional investment has remained high for a long time. The CAGR for urban fixed asset investment, highway construction fixed asset investment, and cement production in 2009-2016 was 25%, 30%, and 19%, respectively. Six cement production lines throughout Tibet are basically in full production, and some cement needs to be purchased from Qinghai and other provinces. In 2016, regional high-standard cement prices rose 60 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton in April and June, respectively, breaking the steady price trend since 2009. Regional cement prices and profit levels greatly surpassed those in other regions of the country. The company's new line was put into operation in 2017, and the company's profit is highly elastic. Currently, only Qilianshan and the company have plans for a new line in Tibet. Among them, the company's 4000 t/d production line is expected to be put into operation in September 2017, adding 50% of clinker production capacity, which will drive a significant increase in the company's profit. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. The recent Tibet Autonomous Region Transportation Work Conference proposed that Tibet plans to complete the investment of 52 billion yuan in fixed assets in transportation in 2017, an increase of about 30% over the previous year. Infrastructure in Tibet is relatively weak. Future fixed asset investment is expected to maintain relatively rapid growth over a long period of time, and the company's cement and infrastructure construction business will benefit for a long time. We expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be about 0.37 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 1.12 yuan, which is 20 times that of PE in 2017, with a target price of 15 yuan. Risk warning. Demand fell more than expected, and raw material prices rose more than expected.

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