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金安国纪(002636)业绩预告修正公告点评:上修2016年净利润至3.25-3.52亿 同比暴增500%-550%

國信證券 ·  Jan 18, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The announcement raised net profit for 2016 to $325-352 million, exceeding market expectations. The company issued a revised announcement on the 2016 annual results forecast. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2016 is estimated to be 325-352 million yuan, an increase of 500%-550% over the previous year, and basic earnings per share of about 0.45-0.48 yuan. The revised performance guidelines exceeded market expectations, but were in line with our previous expectations. The company's profitability was further enhanced during the reporting period, and its performance increased significantly year over year, verifying our logic of continuing to recommend the [copper foil-copper-clad plate-PCB] industry chain as the relationship between supply and demand in the PCB industry improves. The price of upstream copper foil has increased by more than 50%. It is expected that the price increase trend of copper clad plate will continue throughout the year 2016. The price of PCB standard copper foil has risen by more than 50% since the beginning of 2016, and there is no market for prices. Due to the expansion cycle of 1.5-2 years, it is expected that the tight supply and demand situation of copper foil will continue until the end of 2017 to the first half of 2018. Since copper foil is the main raw material for copper-clad plates (accounting for about 40%), since March 2016, in order to cope with rising costs, domestic copper-clad plate prices have increased again in January 2017. We expect that while copper foil continues to be scarce, the trend of price increases for copper-clad plate products will continue throughout the year, and the profitability of related companies will continue to be optimized. The increase in copper foil prices is beneficial to the company's profits. The performance elasticity of copper clad board companies has greatly benefited from the rapid development of segments such as automotive electronics, new energy vehicles, LED small spacing, and communication base stations. Downstream demand in the PCB industry is booming, orders for copper clad plate companies are full, and bargaining power is stronger than before. The trend of rising copper foil prices has not abated. The traditional perception is that price increases for copper foil raw materials are detrimental to the profits of copper clad companies. However, since the second half of 2016, copper coated sheet companies have continued to increase product prices, and the increase is far higher than the cost increase brought about by the increase in copper foil prices, thus enjoying excess profits. In fact, it is a variety with huge performance elasticity. We expect 2017 to usher in higher performance elasticity. The company is a leader in medium to heavy copper clad plates in China, benefiting from the copper foil price increase cycle and the recovery in downstream demand, maintaining a “buy” rating, and is firmly optimistic about upstream copper foil price increases. Against the backdrop of a recovery in downstream PCB demand, the “copper foil - copper clad board - PCB” industry chain sector investment opportunities. The company is the leader in medium to thick copper clad plates in China, with strong bargaining power and large room for product price increases. Under our general scenario, the company's net profit for 2016-2018 is expected to be 335/10.10/1,535 billion, EPS of 0.46/1.39/2.11 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 36/12/8X, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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