Forecast profit growth of 10% to 30% year-on-year
Ketai Power issued an annual performance forecast for 2016, and the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies for the whole year is expected to be 45343.358 million yuan, an increase of 1030% over the same period last year, and the performance is in line with expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
The growth of generating units is steady, and the overseas market is expected to contribute to the increase. The company has maintained its leading position in the field of diesel generator sets in China. While strengthening the advantages of the communications industry, the company has rapidly expanded the revenue scale of high-power products in the data center field, and the annual plate revenue has increased by nearly 30%. In 2017, the company is expected to continue to expand its market share in the data center area and continue to grow. In overseas markets, Hong Kong Tide Power, the generator maker acquired by the company, is expected to contribute more than 5 million yuan in net profit (performance commitment) in 2017.
The new energy vehicle business will contribute to performance in 2017, but there is still uncertainty. The state subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has been formally introduced, and the subsidy for special-purpose vehicles is in line with expectations. Although the company's car purchase costs may rise, the promotion of the company's leasing business is still making steady progress in view of the cost advantages of electric vehicles and the strong demand of express delivery companies for electric replacement of logistics vehicles, and will begin to contribute profits in 2017. At the same time, the company will continue to invest in the new energy vehicle industry chain, which is expected to provide performance flexibility in the future. However, as the industry needs to go through a period of adjustment after the subsidy retreat and the new energy vehicle catalogue review period, the company's logistics vehicle rental business and follow-up investment progress is still uncertain.
Valuation and suggestion
We maintain the company's earnings per share forecast of $0.15 per share for 2016-17-18 at $0.22 per share. Due to the combined influence of a variety of factors, the recent depressed performance of the gem, comparable company valuation has been adjusted back, we lowered the target price to 15.32 yuan (based on the segment valuation method, corresponding to 2017 69x Pmax E), to reflect the downward pressure of market valuation and the uncertainty of the company's new business development. At present, the company's share price valuation is still relatively high, maintaining a neutral rating.
Risk.
The promotion of electric logistics vehicle operation has slowed down; overseas business expansion is lower than expected.