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神雾节能(000820)深度研究:技术创新全球领先 冶金工业节能改造龙头启航

光大證券 ·  Jan 19, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Company profile: Shenwu Energy Saving is a listed company under Shenwu Group engaged in next-generation steel, non-ferrous and solid waste treatment. Adhering to a technological innovation strategy, the company uses three unique technologies: the world's leading Shenwu regenerative rotary furnace direct reduction clean smelting technology, Shenwu hydrogen shaft furnace direct reduction clean smelting technology, and Shenwu regenerative gas melting furnace technology, to solve the high energy consumption, high cost, and high pollution problems in the steel and non-ferrous industries from the source, in line with the national strategy of supply-side reform, and is of great significance in energy saving and environmental protection, such as reducing air pollutant emissions and carbon dioxide emissions. Supply-side reforms and environmental pressure have pushed the metallurgical industry to release more than 375 billion dollars of energy-saving transformation demand. Due to excess production capacity in the steel and non-ferrous industries and environmental inspection, environmental pressure has increased rapidly, and there is an urgent need for an overall industry upgrade; in addition, the energy saving and environmental protection industry is supported by national policies, business fields related to Shenwu Energy Saving will usher in huge market space. We estimate the market space to be 375 billion dollars based on the actual treatment of large solid waste in the industry, the energy saving transformation situation, and the “13th Five-Year Plan” plans for various industry segments. The Shenwu Energy Saving Jinchuan Project was put into operation, and the barriers to global technological leadership are high. The Shenwu Energy Saving Jinchuan Project was put into operation. The technology is leading the world, and the barriers are high. The world's first comprehensive copper tailings utilization project was put into operation, marking the actual implementation of Shenwu's disruptive energy-saving technology. The project implementation results are good and the return on investment is high. The first phase of the project can achieve an iron recovery rate of 84.76%, a zinc recovery rate of 90%, a net profit of 210 million yuan per year, and a total investment payback period of 4.1 years. The gross margin for engineering design is about 70%, and the gross margin for project contracts is about 35%. Disruptive technology guarantees the energy saving, environmental protection and economic benefits of the project, and can also occupy a high market share. The order stock and industry space are guaranteed, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations. The company currently announces about 7.796 billion yuan of major sales contracts in hand, with 5.57 billion domestic sales contracts plus 318 million US dollars overseas. The company uses the capital market to innovate models. The total investment in the Jinchuan project is 1.08 billion yuan, with the China Development Fund holding 83.3%, Shenwu Group holding 10.8%, and Gansu Jinchuan holding 5.8% of the shares. The company uses the EPC (EPC) profit model and takes advantage of supply-side reforms. Disruptive technology promotion speed will be greatly accelerated. Based on our estimated industry space and order signing potential, the performance is expected to exceed market expectations. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.51, 1.08, and 1.70 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 57, 27, and 17 times. Considering supply-side reforms and environmental pressure, the steel and nonferrous industries have broad scope for bulk solid waste treatment, energy saving, and environmental protection transformation. The company will continue to receive new orders in the future and have high growth, giving it 33 times PE in '17, corresponding to the target price of 35.64 yuan, giving it a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: project settlement risk; project construction progress risk.

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