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*ST獐岛(002069)点评:拐点确立 期待突破

中泰證券 ·  Jan 26, 2017 00:00  · Researches

[Key investment events: *ST Zhangdao announced the 2016 performance forecast. The company revised upward the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2016 to 73-83 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit, and is expected to withdraw the delisting risk warning. The company's marine ranching resources have recovered well, and the next year's performance is expected to grow steadily. According to our grassroots research, the company's annual shrimp and scallop yield has recovered to more than 36 kilograms per mu. This year, the area that can be caught is 600,000 mu (2.4 million mu of “3+1” round varieties), and the price of shrimp and scallops has risen markedly. Furthermore, the company's production capacity of conch and oyster varieties has also increased steadily. The company aims to increase its shrimp and scallops production to 60 kg per mu within the next two years, and the company's performance is also expected to continue to grow in line with the increase in mu production. The optimization of the company's organizational structure has seen initial results, and operational efficiency has improved. Through personnel restructuring, the company promoted the flattening of the organizational structure and reduced the functional management and logistics personnel at the headquarters. In 2016, the company's salary costs were reduced by about 7%. At the same time, after optimization and adjustment, the operating efficiency of the company's main business has been greatly improved. We expect the company's operating income to exceed 3 billion yuan. The professional consulting team invests in the company and lays out a medium- to long-term downstream transformation strategy. In 2016, the company signed share transfer agreements with Shanghai Hexiang Investment Management (the main shareholder is Shanghai Hejun Investment Consulting Co., Ltd.), etc., and introduced a professional consulting team. As a first-class consulting company in China, Hejun will provide specialized strategic planning and consulting services for the company's transformation into the downstream food processing industry. At the same time, the company's omni-channel layout continues to improve, and orders from the international market are gradually increasing. Food and cooking products, such as garlic vermicelli, wrapped squid rings, and black pepper salmon, etc., will inject new vitality into the company's future food-side development. An inflection point in the company's performance has been established. Whether it is a return to profit from the original business or an extension breakthrough after removing the cap, it is worth looking forward to. The bottom reverses the target, so continued attention is recommended. We expect the company's net profit for 2016-2018 to be 0.78 million yuan, 1.68 million yuan, and 302 million yuan for EPS, 0.11, 0.24, and 0.43 yuan respectively, giving it 30XPE in 2018 and a target price of 12.9 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Continued downturn in the aquaculture industry; uncertainty in the natural conditions of the ocean.

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