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鲁信创投(600783)点评:项目退出提速 全年业绩靓眼

長江證券 ·  Jan 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key events in the report describe Lu Xin Venture Capital's 2016 performance forecast. In 2016, it is expected to achieve net profit of 336-448 million yuan, an increase of 50% to 100% over the previous year. The withdrawal of the incident review project has been accelerated, and performance growth is impressive. In 2016, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to about 336-448 million yuan, an increase of 50%-100% over the previous year; the reason for the increase in the company's performance was due on the one hand to the New Beiyang accounting adjustments, which confirmed investment income of 271 million yuan, and received a total cash dividend of about 100 million yuan from Minsheng Securities and Shandong State Trust in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, in the second half of 2015, the company was unable to reduce its holdings due to stock disasters. Increase project reserves and accelerate overseas expansion. The company is rich in project reserves. In the third quarter, its investment platform Huaxin Ruicheng invested in Guao Technology to complete the listing, and completed the establishment of 5 new funds in 2016. In the future, it will further increase its project reserves for new materials, health, and civil-military integration. At the same time, the company is expanding overseas projects, and the Intarcia project is expected to become the first investment business in the US. The company will establish a CECC Luxin Venture Capital Fund partnership with the US China Economic Cooperation Group and others to invest in the US and China at a ratio of 50% to 50% to obtain high-quality overseas assets. IPOs are gradually speeding up, speeding up the delivery of results. The pace of issuance of new shares accelerated markedly in the fourth quarter of 2016. A total of 131 IPOs were issued, with a cumulative increase of 95.5% and 61.3%, respectively. The rapid issuance of IPOs continued in 2017, with a total of 34 issuances for 3 consecutive weeks, with a financing scale of 12.7 billion dollars; as the main exit channel for venture capital, the acceleration of the IPO pace will shorten the project exit cycle. The company currently has 8 plans to go public. The company's performance is expected to be realized at an accelerated pace. We continue to be optimistic about the company. The core points are: 1. Venture capital performance is expected to be realized at an accelerated pace. The company plans to reduce its holdings of Longli Biotech by no more than 29 million shares within 6 months, and future performance growth is guaranteed; 2. Guao Technology has sufficient reserves. After listing, Guao Technology holds 10 listed projects and 8 projects to be listed; 3. The company has been approved for the New Third Board market pilot to expand the company's revenue sources. The company's EPS in '16 and '17 is estimated to be 0.51 and 0.64 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 46.57 and 37.06 times. Risk warning: 1. Capital markets fluctuate greatly; 2. The exit of the project fell short of expectations.

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