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川大智胜(002253)点评:飞行模拟业务稳健成长

財達證券 ·  Jan 24, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Abstract: There is a lot of potential space for flight simulations. The flight simulation business includes simulator training services and simulator visual model products. The Civil Aviation Administration stipulates that pilots are required to conduct flight simulation training every year, and also stipulates the number of hours of training. According to data from Boeing, the number of new flight simulators added in China will be around 300 in the next 20 years. Currently, the number of flight simulators put into use by the company is three, of which the third one was put into operation in the second half of 2016. In the future, the company has a lot of room for growth in the number of flight simulators. When flight simulator manufacturers sell flight simulators, they generally only provide models of 3 airports. When pilots conduct flight training, they need all the airport models of the take-off and landing airports they have trained, about 10 models. Therefore, the sale of a simulator by a foreign manufacturer will generate demand for seven airport model products. Currently, there are few domestic manufacturers that can develop visual model products for simulators; currently, only one company has developed visual model products to support D-class flight simulators. Long-term technology accumulation has laid a solid foundation for the company to develop new products. Performance forecast: It is predicted that the EPS for the next three years from 2016-2018 will be 0.22 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 136 times, 105 times, and 80 times, respectively. Give the company an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: 1) the risk of uncertainty in government procurement policies; 2) the risk of customer and revenue concentration; 3) the risk of loss of core technical personnel.

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