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中南文化(002445)深度报告:大文化蓝图布局初成 梦工厂战略扬帆起航

長江證券 ·  Feb 13, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The main points of the report are to transform the cultural media industry, build Zhongnan Star Dreamworks Company, since its main business is clearly affected by macroeconomic fluctuations. In order to enhance the stability and sustainability of profits and actively transform the layout of the media industry, it acquired Datang Huihuang in March 2014 to enter film and television production, and later through continuous expansion, involving movies, TV dramas, artist agencies, movies, games, IP resources, music, online movies, etc., to continuously improve the layout of the big cultural industry chain. At the same time, in order to match the transformation strategy, the company brought in heavyweights in the cultural media industry, such as Liu Chun, Chang Jihong, and Hong Tao, to take the helm. The transformation is beginning to bear fruit, and profitability has increased: in 2015, the company's net profit to the mother increased by 112.43% year on year, and the net profit from the mother in the first three quarters of 2016 increased by 65.45% year on year. Deconstructing the film and television industry chain, leading IP and artist resources are the key. Production and distribution companies in the film and television industry chain are scattered. The traditional downstream channel TV is strong, and drama purchases value IP and stars; with the entry of Internet video sites, the share of high-quality shows is intense, and quality content producers have already benefited; as Internet video sites directly enter upstream production, their dependence on content producers has decreased, which has also led to more intense competition for top IP. IP dramas have a traffic gathering effect, and the value of leading IP is prominent; China's artists' film pay is soaring, making up a large part of the cost of movies and TV dramas, so we are optimistic about companies that lay out leading IP resources and artist training ahead of time. Leading IP drives the entire industry chain and cultivates artists to seize scarce resources. Through the acquisition of Xinhua Pioneer, the company has a large reserve of leading IP and celebrity writer resources. It has strong IP incubation capabilities, and the incubation of leading IP drives the monetization of the company's pan-entertainment layout. IP drives the development of movies, TV shows, and games to form resource sharing and true linkage. Build a hierarchical artist training system, seize scarce human resources, and form a multi-level artist structure: first-tier mature artists, professional film and television college students, idol influencers, and imposing artist resources to a high point; in-depth cooperation with Hunan TV, Mango TV, and Singbar plays a synergistic role. Connecting and integrating resources with people, companies that are deeply tied to the Mango ecosystem have established deep cooperation with Mango through the sharing of human resources and integrated resources. Mango participated in the company's 300 million fixed equity increase in close ties; through the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement, it had deep connections in business such as film, television, variety games, etc.; at the same time, the company was also the GP shareholder and largest LP of the Mango Cultural and Creative Fund. The investment proposal predicts that the company's 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.33 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.88 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 47 times, 24 times, and 18 times, respectively, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1. Risk of macroeconomic fluctuations affecting traditional main business; 2. The risk that the synergy of mergers and acquisitions will fall short of expectations; 3. The risk of policy regulation. 4. Will the company grow in terms of production

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