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蓝海华腾(300484):电控业务推动业绩翻倍增长 物流车电控拓展势头不减

海通證券 ·  Feb 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: The company announced the 2016 performance report. In 2016, the company achieved revenue of 660 million yuan, an increase of 113.14% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 150 million yuan, an increase of 111.62% over the previous year. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 228 million yuan, an increase of 63.36% over the previous year, and net profit of 44 million yuan, an increase of 36.73% over the previous year. The motor controller business continues to grow rapidly. In 2016, the company's electric vehicle motor controller business achieved revenue of 537 million yuan, an increase of 157.06% over the previous year, driving rapid growth in the company's revenue and net profit. The motor controller business revenue accounts for about 81% of the company's total revenue. Among them, Q4 motor control business revenue was 197 million yuan, an increase of 70.33% over the previous year. The electronic control of logistics vehicles is developing rapidly. In 2016, it is estimated that the sales revenue of the company's logistics vehicle electronic control products will account for more than 50% of motor controllers, with a volume of more than 250 million yuan. The company has maintained very good cooperative relationships with manufacturers such as Dongfeng, Universiade, and FAW. In Q4 2015, March 2016, and September 2016, the Watermar Innovation Alliance successively signed cooperative production agreements for electric logistics vehicles with Dongfeng Motor (5,000 units), Shanxi Universiade (15,000 units), and FAW Group (5,000 units). Among them, the electronic control for FAW's cooperative production models is all provided by Blue Ocean Huateng; based on the delivery situation, Dongfeng's cooperative models are also basically provided by Blue Sea Huateng; Universiade is also an important customer of the company. We expect that some of the cooperative models will also use the company's electronic control products. A prototype of passenger car electronic control was launched in '17. On the basis of continuously expanding and strengthening pure electric buses and logistics vehicles, the company has carried out in-depth research and preparation of relevant technologies in the field of new energy passenger vehicles. At present, some progress has been made in the development of motor controllers for passenger cars, and a prototype is expected to be launched in 2017. The electric vehicle policy is gradually being implemented, and electric distribution vehicles are expected to be the most prosperous in '17. At the end of 2016, the new subsidy catalogue was launched, and the first batch of promotion catalogues in 2017 was also launched on January 23. The market broke out of the policy vacuum period. We expect sales of new energy vehicles to be around 700,000 units for the full year of 2017, with a growth rate of about 40%. Structurally, in 2016, since electric distribution vehicles were not listed in the first three quarters, production and sales were greatly affected. We expect the electric distribution segment to be the most prosperous in 2017, with production and sales exceeding 100,000 vehicles, and a growth rate of over 100%. The company is the company that has excelled in expanding and is the most flexible in the field of electronic control of electric logistics vehicles, and will benefit significantly. Profit forecasts and investment advice. We estimate that the company's net profit for 2017-2018 will be 226 million yuan and 308 million yuan respectively, up 46.17% and 36.30% from the previous year, and diluted earnings per share of 2.17 yuan and 2.96 yuan. The valuation of the same industry is taken into account, and the company's electric vehicle related performance accounts for a relatively large share. It is given 35 times PE in 2017, corresponding to the target price of 75.95 yuan/share, and an increase in holdings rating. Uncertainties. The development of the NEV industry is falling short of expectations.

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