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久其软件(002279)点评:无效担忧带来波动 23X估值下更有高增长!

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jun 6, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Investors are concerned about shareholders' pledges due to the impact of the Securities Regulatory Commission's new holdings reduction regulations on market expectations. According to the recent announcement “Dong Taixiang..., the company shares held by Dong Taixiang... have been pledged a total of 100,750,000 shares, accounting for 93.63% of the total company shares held by him, accounting for 14.32% of the company's total share capital; Zhao Fujun..., his company shares have been pledged a total of 74,750,000 shares, accounting for 96.17% of the company's total shares, accounting for 10.62% of the company's total share capital.” Some investors' concerns are that the high staking ratio causes risk. Using actual data to answer, according to the 40% pledge rate and the 170% warning line, there is at least 35% room for the stock price of Jiuqi Software to leave the warning line! (Data from China Settlement). Excluding the fluctuations caused by concerns about ineffectiveness, there was even higher growth under the 23X valuation! A healthy history of TMT development is about moderate acquisitions and better collaboration, whether it's technology or performance collaboration. Kai Ming Chen's in-depth report studies that the company's share capital increased by only 10% in 7 years, and the profit from collaboration is more than that of mergers and acquisitions. Jiuqi's software is probably better: it almost never buys companies with PE, and doesn't consider doubts about prices exceeding XX times. The layout of each field is risky and incubated. There is basically no risk before considering the acquisition, and searching for simple and pragmatic mergers and acquisitions in this field without PE, and exporting them to the target using collaborative resources. The risk of mergers and acquisitions of Jiuqi software is low, and it is even safer than the internal development of the team that Jiuqi has trained. The acquisition is only a sign of the good management of its software over a long period of time. The market pursues companies that are “very simple to talk about,” but such companies often have a very simple business, and the risk of countering market fluctuations is very low. It is difficult to become a towering tree. It is only suitable for BETA on a certain main line, and only suitable for investors with a year or two of performance. A quality company is just like Google or BAT: it's hard to describe in one sentence. Even if the corporate culture can be described in one sentence, the collaboration between business lines is exquisite, and it is difficult to put it all into words. Therefore, companies such as Jiuqi Software, which cannot be described in one sentence, have exquisite business collaboration, and have distinct corporate culture and financial characteristics, often exceed investor expectations in profit. The growth logic lies in government big data, leading stocks with a market space of 100 billion dollars! The in-depth report on March 13 entered Jiuqi's software business line, focusing on the emergence of flexible business in government big data. Argument 1. The market was once concerned about long-term endogenous business. The 2016 annual report announced that the e-government revenue growth rate for Jiuqi's original two major business areas was 100.88% (including Huaxia Dentsu, excluding 42%), and that group control revenue grew by 34.08%. Endogenous stickiness can be estimated to continue to grow for 3 years. Argument 2: Net profit per capita increased 4 times, ROE increased 3 times, and internal and external collaboration clearly exceeded expectations. Argument 3: Construct a “Jiuqi+” big data strategy to lay out industries such as finance, education, civil affairs, transportation, administration of justice, health, etc., and important departments have made breakthroughs from top to bottom. Big data on government affairs has driven a sharp increase in profits, and the core value is breaking through previous small market spaces such as finance and group control! Maintain profit forecasts and “buy” ratings. Net profit for 2017, 2018, and 2019 is expected to be 374 million, 462 million, and 575 million. The corresponding PE in 2017 was 23X, and the PE valuation was at the bottom of history. Revenue and profit growth is expected to be 77% and 71% in 2017. Since cash mergers and acquisitions were transferred at the beginning of the year, 2017 profits include a consolidated statement of Shanghai Mobile for the whole year.

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