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赣粤高速(600269)年报点评:公路主业实现高增长 多元发展稳步推进

廣發證券 ·  Mar 7, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Core view: In 2016, the company achieved operating income of 4.555 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The main engineering companies are no longer listed. Net profit was 1,037 million yuan, an increase of 45.7% over the previous year; net profit after deduction of net profit of 528 million yuan was realized, an increase of 44.8% over the previous year. Earnings per share were $0.44. Revenue from the main expressway business exceeded 3 billion dollars, and operations continued to improve. In 2016, the company's toll revenue reached a record high of 3,036 billion yuan, an increase of 6.26% over the previous year (excluding the impact of “business change and increase”, achieving traffic service revenue of 3,096 billion yuan), and a gross profit margin of 50.62%, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year. Among them, revenue from traffic services on the Changzhang Expressway, Wenhou Expressway, and Changtai Expressway increased significantly. The divestment of the engineering company led to a decrease in revenue of 639 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,106 billion yuan, mainly because the company transferred all of the shares in the engineering company and then did not merge them. This was also the main reason for the decline in revenue in the current period. The divestment of the highly competitive and less profitable engineering business highlights the company's determination to concentrate on the main expressway business. Financial expenses have increased, but the balance ratio gradually declined in 2016, the company's financial expenses were 658 million yuan, an increase of 8.98% over the previous year. The main reason is that the Changzhang high-speed renovation and expansion was completed in 2016, and financial expenses stopped being consolidated. However, we expect that the pressure on companies to repay debts will gradually decrease in the future. The Changjiu Expressway, which the company is currently undergoing renovation and expansion, has received 1.15 billion dollars in special construction funds from CDB. Interest rates are only 1.2%. There is little financial pressure, and there are no new road projects after Changjiu's expansion is completed. By the end of '16, the company's total liabilities were $16.335 billion, a decrease of $308 million from the beginning of the year. The balance ratio was 51.02%, down 2.56 percent from the beginning of the year. The “Expressway+” business developed smoothly. On the basis of stabilizing the main business of existing expressway operation and management, the company aims to extend the industrial chain and enhance the value chain to achieve the “Expressway+” strategy. In terms of expressway support, Fangxing Company completed operating income of 714 million yuan, an increase of 12.68% over the previous year, a record high; the service area achieved operating income of 468.36 million yuan, of which non-oil revenue was 25.398 million yuan, an increase of 35.6% over the previous year. In terms of financial investment, Guosheng Securities, which participated in the company in 2016, successfully completed a backdoor listing and contributed 547 million yuan in investment income to the company; it invested 436 million yuan of its own capital to participate in Hengbang Insurance's capital increase and expansion, holding 20% of the shares to become its largest shareholder. Investment advice: The value of assets is clearly underestimated. The buying rating is expected that the company's EPS for the years 17, 18, and 19 will be 0.34, 0.37, and 0.41, respectively, corresponding to PE 16.1X, 14.7X, and 13.6X. At this stage, uncertainty about the company's main business is gradually being eliminated and performance is on an upward path, but the market value is still broken. The corresponding PB is only 0.93, which gives a buying rating. Risks suggest a macroeconomic downturn; traffic falls short of expectations; toll road policy adjustments; and the nine-year extension in Changchang falls short of expectations.

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