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拓日新能(002218)公司点评:全年业绩亮眼 电站开发和组件销售促增长

太平洋證券 ·  Mar 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event: On February 28, the company released the “2016 Annual Performance Forecast”. The announcement stated that the company achieved total operating income of 1,236,369,624.55 yuan in 2016, an increase of 69.83% over the same period last year, and realized a total operating profit of 102,666,370.03 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 565.19% over the same period last year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 124,467,200.47 yuan, an increase of 300.71% year-on-year. It is in line with the expectations given in the previous three quarterly reports. Comment: There has been a significant increase in component sales. The company accelerated the scale expansion of core products in 2016, and upgraded and strengthened the product structure, industrial chain layout, and optimal allocation of resources. While the company is developing steadily, it has seized market opportunities in the photovoltaic industry, increased module sales efforts, and increased sales revenue and operating income over the same period last year. According to the company's previously disclosed plans, the company will achieve 1 GW of module production capacity and 2 GW of photovoltaic glass production capacity in 2016. According to the semi-annual report, the revenue of crystalline silicon cells and modules increased by 429.46% in the first half of 2016. The layout of power plants is accelerating. The company closely followed national policies, and the photovoltaic power plants it invested in were connected to the grid one after another to generate electricity. Power generation revenue increased dramatically, and power plant revenue contributed significantly to the company's profit growth. At present, the company is connected to the 230 MW ground power station, and the electricity price range is 0.95-1 yuan. In particular, the power generation capacity of the 130 MW power plant connected to the grid in 2015 is relatively stable. The power plant revenue has played a role in ballast stone and setting a solid foundation for the company's performance, and has laid a solid foundation for future performance. The company will prioritize the development of ground-based power plants in the future, and can gradually achieve the goal of a 1GW grid-connected photovoltaic power plant in 3-5 years. Furthermore, the company will also rapidly deploy distributed power stations and focus on developing photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in response to the country's call for poverty alleviation. Currently, it has also signed cooperation agreements with several poverty-alleviation counties. There is a balance between domestic and foreign countries, and the performance of overseas markets has increased. With the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission's draft for solicitation of comments on new energy electricity price reductions, and the imminent publication of the official draft, it is expected that the rush to install power plants will accelerate further before June 30, 2017, which is conducive to a significant increase in the company's performance. At the same time, the company is expanding its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Africa. Currently, the company has set up two subsidiaries in Uganda and Kenya, focusing on developing the African market. The company has developed a new way of thinking about the “Big Africa” consumption model. It has now achieved revenue, and is expected to achieve 200% growth next year. In addition, the company also sells photovoltaic glass in the Indian market. Profit forecast. In the context of the continuous release of supporting policies for the photovoltaic industry and technological progress, the scale of the company's power plants continues to expand, the business structure is further optimized, and performance has entered a continuous growth channel. The forecast is that the company's 2016-2018 EPS will be 0.21, 0.30, and 0.37, respectively, giving it a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the operation of the company's photovoltaic power plants does not meet expectations, and the new energy policy has changed.

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